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Applied Materials News

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.04%chance

1017511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3634

275

Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2312655

OptionProbability

Micron Technology (MU)

Lam Research (LRCX)

Walmart (WMT)

ExxonMobil (XOM)

Chevron (CVX)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Costco (COST)

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Merck & Co. (MRK)

Home Depot (HD)

Philip Morris (PM)

Coca-Cola (KO)

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)

Alphabet Class C (GOOG)

RTX Corporation (RTX)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Meta Platforms (META)

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Amazon (AMZN)

Cisco (CSCO)

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

Citigroup (C)

Morgan Stanley (MS)

McDonald's (MCD)

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

IBM (IBM)

GE Aerospace (GE)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Bank of America (BAC)

Apple (AAPL)

Mastercard (MA)

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

Visa (V)

AbbVie (ABBV)

American Express (AXP)

Broadcom (AVGO)

Tesla (TSLA)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Netflix (NFLX)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Oracle (ORCL)

Salesforce (CRM)

AppLovin (APP)

68

63

62

62

62

62

61

61

60

60

59

59

58

57

56

56

56

55

54

53

52

52

52

52

51

51

49

48

47

47

46

45

45

44

44

44

43

43

43

43

42

42

40

40

40

39

39

37

36

28

Will Zohran Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Nov 8, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.8%chance

1711205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

831

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.29%chance

397272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1314

762

Will an AI be able to keep us laughing out loud by 2028?

Nov 5, 12:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77%chance

653811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

890

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Jul 10, 11:28 PMSep 1, 11:09 PM

273445

OptionProbability

University of Illinois (note: i live in town and my dad is a professor)

UW Madison

University of Michigan

Harvey mudd college

University of Southern California

Northwestern (new addition!)

Rice university (new addition)

Williams college (new addition!)

UCLA

Carnegie Mellon University

Cornell (new addition!)

Stanford

University of chicago

MIT (new addition!)

Princeton

100

82

61

46

43

40

40

40

36

29

24

18

13

11

0

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

34.63%chance

181220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

640

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?

Jul 11, 6:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.71%chance

13202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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