Approval AI News

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

20.58%chance

7313058

OptionVotes

YES

1030

680

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.67%chance

1139573

OptionVotes

YES

1912

1573

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

2340

427

Robot Childcare by end of 2030?

Sep 2, 5:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.05%chance

274919

OptionVotes

YES

3380

296

If Trump is elected president, will he approve a new foreign aid package to Ukraine while he is in office?

Mar 9, 9:38 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

63.08%chance

282655

OptionVotes

YES

1156

888

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

41.18%chance

292620

OptionVotes

YES

1195

837

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Apr 22, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.27%chance

372217

OptionVotes

YES

1217

869

How many AI-generated drugs will be approved by the FDA by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7612

OptionProbability

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 20

21 - 50

51 - 100

Above 100

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

Jan 10, 3:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3171

OptionProbability

I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

Will we have 20+ this year?

Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

Will we meet in the library at least once?

Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

100

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

1095

1027

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against AIDS before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.21%chance

4100

OptionVotes

YES

410

292

Will there be an FDA approved cure for AIDS/HIV by EOY 2032?

Mar 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.61%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

130

111

Approval AI News

Prediction markets for Approval AI

Prediction markets for Approval AI

Prediction markets for Approval AI

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Robot Childcare by end of 2030?

If Trump is elected president, will he approve a new foreign aid package to Ukraine while he is in office?

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

How many AI-generated drugs will be approved by the FDA by the end of 2030?

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against AIDS before 2028?

Will there be an FDA approved cure for AIDS/HIV by EOY 2032?

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