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Prediction markets for April

Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?

Mar 14, 6:58 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

32.3%chance

383170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

736

Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?

May 10, 2:17 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1287

1187

Will we redirect another asteroid by April 1, 2029?

Apr 2, 2:31 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

32.76%chance

191635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

343

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

Feb 1, 4:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

49.13%chance

101574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

983

Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?

Mar 13, 6:36 PMApr 1, 11:59 PM

24.22%chance

321494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

869

Will the US strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?

Jan 26, 10:26 PMApr 29, 11:59 PM

42.28%chance

9841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

28.84%chance

5705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

637

Will I still be running LW/EA board games nights weekly in April

Jan 30, 7:38 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

46.87%chance

4360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2036?

Feb 4, 6:51 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2030?

Feb 4, 6:49 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

45.52%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

914

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2033?

Feb 4, 6:50 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

new Fooming Shoggoths song by April 1st 2026?

Jan 29, 8:48 PMMar 28, 12:59 AM

60%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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