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Prediction markets for April

Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?

Apr 5, 10:29 PMApr 5, 10:27 PM

26%chance

478486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

593

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15737

14292

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

42.64%chance

233700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4493

3587

Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?

Apr 23, 4:17 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

24.79%chance

182788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

574

Will we redirect another asteroid by April 1, 2029?

Apr 2, 2:31 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

31.65%chance

201660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

331

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30th 2027? [Polymarket]

Aug 24, 5:40 PMApr 29, 11:59 PM

36.05%chance

161376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

751

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

28.63%chance

251287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

440

Will Anthropic have a higher valuation than OpenAI on April 18, 2029?

Apr 18, 3:28 PMApr 18, 3:27 PM

53%chance

161063

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2033?

Feb 4, 6:50 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

66.51%chance

3600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

710

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2036?

Feb 4, 6:51 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

51.64%chance

3400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

968

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2030?

Feb 4, 6:49 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

50.7%chance

4205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

986

Will Dario Amodei Say Anthropic Has a “Genius in a datacenter” before April 2027?

Nov 5, 10:37 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

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