AR News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3174186

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.31%chance

204065

OptionVotes

YES

3853

260

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

Jan 23, 3:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

182185

OptionVotes

YES

1448

632

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.32%chance

28720

OptionVotes

YES

1136

941

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Nov 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

46.53%chance

19690

OptionVotes

YES

1079

923

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Jan 23, 3:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73%chance

23680

OptionVotes

YES

1093

677

Will Apple announce a new AR headset in 2026?”

Jan 7, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

5392

OptionVotes

YES

216

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

62.25%chance

18271

OptionVotes

YES

1002

988

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

YES

1023

968

Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030?

Jun 26, 6:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14%chance

7150

OptionVotes

YES

248

Apple ships AR glasses in 2027?

Aug 18, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.36%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

356

249

Will augmented reality (AR) contact lenses be a thing before 2030 ?

Jan 2, 10:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

125

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Will Apple announce a new AR headset in 2026?”

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030?

Apple ships AR glasses in 2027?

Will augmented reality (AR) contact lenses be a thing before 2030 ?

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