AR News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2870067

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.34%chance

203765

OptionVotes

YES

3553

281

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

Jan 23, 3:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

182185

OptionVotes

YES

1448

632

How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)

Jul 18, 3:29 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

101240

OptionProbability

8 - 9

6 - 7

0 - 2

3 - 5

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.32%chance

28720

OptionVotes

YES

1136

941

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Jan 23, 3:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73%chance

23680

OptionVotes

YES

1093

677

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Nov 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

55.5%chance

17514

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

Will Apple announce a new AR headset in 2026?”

Jan 7, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

5392

OptionVotes

YES

216

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

62.25%chance

18271

OptionVotes

YES

1002

988

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

YES

1023

968

Apple ships AR glasses in 2027?

Aug 18, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.36%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

356

249

Will "Reconsider the anti-cavity bacteria if you ar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 8, 9:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.73%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Will Apple announce a new AR headset in 2026?”

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Apple ships AR glasses in 2027?

Will "Reconsider the anti-cavity bacteria if you ar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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