AR News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2668236

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Apple ships AR glasses in 2025?

Aug 1, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.19%chance

114142

OptionVotes

YES

716

164

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Jul 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.82%chance

283548

OptionVotes

YES

4460

1285

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.29%chance

193513

OptionVotes

YES

3326

301

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

Jan 23, 3:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

182185

OptionVotes

YES

1448

632

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.32%chance

28720

OptionVotes

YES

1136

941

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Jan 23, 3:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.33%chance

23565

OptionVotes

YES

983

982

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Nov 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

55.5%chance

17514

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

62.25%chance

18271

OptionVotes

YES

1002

988

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

YES

1023

968

Apple ships AR glasses in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.68%chance

4237

OptionVotes

YES

505

190

Apple ships AR glasses in 2027?

Aug 18, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.36%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

356

249

AR News

Prediction markets for AR

Prediction markets for AR

Prediction markets for AR

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Apple ships AR glasses in 2025?

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Apple ships AR glasses in 2026?

Apple ships AR glasses in 2027?

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