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Prediction markets for ARA

Will more than 100,000 people live in a line-shaped city in Saudi Arabia in 2035? eg The Line

Jan 31, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.85%chance

4017997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

850

Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2025?

Dec 17, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.12%chance

4111114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

625

Will Saudi Arabia build a structure at least 100m x 100m x 1000m before 2040

Aug 2, 7:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70%chance

266623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

138

Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?

Apr 25, 11:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

243947

OptionProbability

European hamster (Cricetus cricetus)

Kākāpō (Strigops habroptila)

Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana)

California condor (Gymnogyps californianus)

Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

Great hammerhead (Sphyrna mokarran)

Black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

Ammonite Snail (Helenoconcha relicta)

Hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata)

Rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis)

Jellyfish tree (Medusagyne oppositifolia)

Peacock tarantula (Poecilotheria metallica)

Santiago Island giant tortoise (Chelonoidis niger darwini)

Great green macaw (Ara ambiguus)

Pernambuco pygmy owl (Glaucidium mooreorum)

Angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Dromedary naiad (Dromus dromas)

Sri Lankan relict ant (Aneuretus simoni)

Seychelles forest scorpion (Lychas braueri)

Nike's squeaker (Arthroleptis nikeae)

David's tiger (Parantica davidi)

Vaquita (Phocoena sinus)

95

90

86

81

80

77

77

72

69

69

67

61

58

58

57

57

57

57

57

57

57

47

31

10

The population of "The Line" in Saudi Arabia will reach 1 million

Dec 12, 9:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.29%chance

253580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1439

921

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.23%chance

252768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2511

613

Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia?

Sep 12, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.87%chance

132357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

822

Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Feb 10, 4:22 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.64%chance

211812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

918

Were there at least 200 deaths in the Gaza al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion?

Oct 21, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.45%chance

301595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

679

Will Saudi Arabia adopt the Chinese Yuan for trading oil by 2030?

Jul 2, 4:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.64%chance

13942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

587

Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?

Jan 17, 5:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.97%chance

17711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

994

Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035?

Dec 26, 5:44 AMJan 1, 2:00 PM

49.68%chance

16262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

941

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