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Arabella News

    Prediction markets for Arabella

    OptionProbability

    Ron Weasley is a redhead

    Harry Potter is white

    Fred and George are twins irl

    Snape is black

    At least one named character from the book has their race changed

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

    A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

    Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

    McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

    Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

    Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

    Malfoy has white blonde hair

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

    There’s a scene set before Harry is born

    Premieres in 2027

    JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

    The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

    Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

    Peeves is a reoccurring character

    Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

    It's woke

    An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

    The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

    Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

    A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

    mandrake root on screen

    80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

    Hermione is white

    A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

    A house elf is shown on screen

    Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

    Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

    Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

    Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

    The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

    An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

    It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

    At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

    Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

    Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

    Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

    Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

    It ends on a cliff hanger

    The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

    An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

    The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

    Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

    "Voldemort" has a silent "t"

    Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

    90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

    At least one of the actors is transgender

    Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

    VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

    Dobby makes an appearance

    Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

    Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

    We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

    set in 2025

    Premieres in 2026

    Awkwafina is cast in the show

    Zendaya is cast in the show

    set in the 2020s

    We get AGI before it premieres

    JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

    Voldemort is a woman

    Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

    Keir Starmer is in it

    Features an explicitly transgender character

    There will be seven CGI dwarves

    Hermione is Indian

    Hermione is black

    Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

    Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

    Gandalf is black

    Fred and George have the same actor

    HPMOR is referenced

    Hagrid is black

    One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

    Yudkowsky makes an appearance

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

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