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Prediction markets for ARB

An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027

Jan 2, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.44%chance

9032070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2181

578

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74%chance

8828207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.49%chance

11915639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1904

1083

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.19%chance

10910199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2088

732

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Jul 16, 1:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.85%chance

10660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

904

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.24%chance

16641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

769

There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

Jan 17, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.15%chance

14384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

967

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Nov 2, 12:28 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

24.19%chance

12328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

161

Will "Arbital has been imported to LessWrong" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 20, 6:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.78%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

89

Before 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth?

Jun 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.95%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

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