ARB News
Prediction markets for ARB
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
95.04%chance
9741168
OptionVotes
4378
228
An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027
Jan 2, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.25%chance
9032074
OptionVotes
2199
574
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
78.47%chance
10719513
OptionVotes
1971
727
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
56.49%chance
11915639
OptionVotes
1904
1083
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
84.6%chance
11110306
OptionVotes
2025
743
When will the first robot be made that can go into a near-arbitrary kitchen and make a cup of tea?
Apr 18, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.37%chance
585487
OptionProbability
479
323
Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?
Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
35.54%chance
17971
OptionVotes
1118
699
Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?
Jul 16, 1:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.85%chance
10660
OptionVotes
1152
904
Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?
Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
65.24%chance
16641
OptionVotes
1089
769
There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030
Jan 17, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
83.15%chance
14384
OptionVotes
1078
967
[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
Nov 2, 12:28 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM
24.19%chance
12328
OptionVotes
239
161
[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
7207
OptionProbability
77
44