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Prediction markets for ARB

An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027

Jan 2, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.83%chance

8931302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

786

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85%chance

8420690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2380

420

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.07%chance

11314902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2220

880

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.05%chance

9814256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2083

697

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

88.98%chance

1039853

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2620

654

When will the first robot be made that can go into a near-arbitrary kitchen and make a cup of tea?

Apr 18, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.67%chance

534238

OptionProbability

YES

NO

416

335

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Jul 16, 1:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.85%chance

10660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

904

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.72%chance

10400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

834

There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

Jan 17, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.3%chance

14374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

965

Before 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth?

Jun 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.95%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Arb bots for confident markets

Nov 18, 10:48 PM

00

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