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Prediction markets for ARB

An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027

Jan 2, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

8932052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

575

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74%chance

8628068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

773

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.01%chance

11615266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1763

1202

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

87.85%chance

10810124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2433

678

When will the first robot be made that can go into a near-arbitrary kitchen and make a cup of tea?

Apr 18, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.55%chance

545244

OptionProbability

NO

YES

384

239

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will Álvaro Arbeloa be sacked or resign before the end of the 2025–26 season?

Jan 15, 6:58 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

37.29%chance

4756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

771

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Jul 16, 1:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.85%chance

10660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

904

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.2%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

744

There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

Jan 17, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.15%chance

14384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

967

[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules

Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7207

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

77

44

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