OptionProbability
Market chaos
Vacant House seats at start of term
Bonus underlying chaos
Any member seated who was not the winner
Bonus market chaos
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Any member-elect changes parties
Any major news organization retracts a call
New election ordered for any seat
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
Any election delayed
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
63
60
45
40
37
34
31
28
27
22
20
10
8
3
