OptionProbability
Market chaos
Vacant House seats at start of term
Bonus market chaos
Bonus underlying chaos
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
New election ordered for any seat
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Any member seated who was not the winner
Any major news organization retracts a call
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any election delayed
Any member-elect changes parties
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
55
50
43
41
39
32
28
26
24
23
22
20
19
15
13
12
10
2
