OptionProbability
Market chaos
Bonus underlying chaos
Vacant House seats at start of term
Bonus market chaos
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Any member-elect changes parties
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Any major news organization retracts a call
New election ordered for any seat
Any member seated who was not the winner
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any election delayed
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
58
53
49
45
34
29
26
25
21
20
19
18
16
9
2
