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Prediction markets for Arby

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

95.04%chance

9741168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4378

228

An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027

Jan 2, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.25%chance

9032074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

574

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.39%chance

10719583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1901

746

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.49%chance

11915639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1904

1083

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.6%chance

11110306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

743

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Jul 16, 1:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.85%chance

10660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

904

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.24%chance

16641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

769

Will Arby's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2027?

Mar 11, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.16%chance

17465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

390

26

Which fast food chain in the USA will offer a lab-grown / cultivated meat product first?

Apr 2, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22428

OptionProbability

Other

Burger King

Steak and Shake

Mc Donald's

White Castle

Shake Shack

Chipotle

Sweetgreen

Panera Bread

Trump House

BurgerFi

Lyfe Kitchen

Sonics

Arby's

Kentucky Fried Chicken KFC

The Organic Coup

Taco Bell

Wendy's

Popeyes

Chik-fil-A

Checkers/Rallys

Zaxbys

Raising Cane

20

14

7

6

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

Jan 17, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.15%chance

14384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

967

Will Arby's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Mar 11, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.34%chance

10205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

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