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Prediction markets for ARC AGI

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3033179

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

98

2

0

0

0

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.12%chance

8821057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1916

57

Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?

Mar 25, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.28%chance

9313004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

3412236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.76%chance

5310874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

885

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

Best ARC-AGI-3 score in 2026?

Apr 14, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

379531

OptionProbability

50 - 60%

40 - 50%

60 - 70%

70 - 80%

>90%

80 - 90%

30 - 40%

10 - 20%

20 - 30%

0 - 10%

31

20

18

10

10

6

3

1

1

0

Which lab will be the first to reach 50% on ARC-AGI-3?

Mar 25, 10:50 PMDec 31, 11:50 PM

334990

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Other

48

37

10

5

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.61%chance

314360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

776

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.09%chance

344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

79

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.18%chance

214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

97

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