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Prediction markets for ARC AGI

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3047254

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

99

1

0

0

0

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.76%chance

9621852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1956

21

Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

3412236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.18%chance

6011339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

1000

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.53%chance

5210288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

79

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.02%chance

334467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

402049

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2029

2030-2049

2023-2024

51

36

11

2

Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

111003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

554

3

What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?

Jun 12, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.99%chance

17498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

89

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.2%chance

6438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

53

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.4%chance

555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

85

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