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Prediction markets for ARC AGI

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

2724766

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

88

11

0

0

0

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

8519324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1921

50

Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?

Mar 25, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.17%chance

7810731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2461

406

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.36%chance

5110624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

977

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

Best ARC-AGI-3 score in 2026?

Apr 14, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

324862

OptionProbability

10 - 20%

20 - 30%

0 - 10%

30 - 40%

50 - 60%

60 - 70%

70 - 80%

80 - 90%

>90%

40 - 50%

24

21

20

9

5

5

5

4

4

3

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.61%chance

314360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

776

Which lab will be the first to reach 50% on ARC-AGI-3?

Mar 25, 10:50 PMDec 31, 11:50 PM

243481

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

Other

OpenAI

46

26

17

12

Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.77%chance

272799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

796

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

When will the first model reach 50% on ARC-AGI-3?

Mar 25, 7:33 PMJan 1, 7:47 PM

301547

OptionProbability

Before January 1 2029

Before July 1 2028

Before January 1 2028

Before July 1 2027

Before January 1 2027

Any time after January 1 2029

Before July 1 2026

91

88

87

81

51

7

4

Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Mar 28, 4:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.39%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

15

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