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Prediction markets for ARC AGI

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.89%chance

286686677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22659

4871

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

6556376

OptionProbability

01/01/2030

01/01/2028

01/01/2026

01/01/2025

95

92

87

0

ARC-AGI-2 Top Score >=50% in 2025?

Mar 25, 3:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.68%chance

6846828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

729

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.37%chance

7646712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2175

43

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.46%chance

6211825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1898

85

ARC-AGI-2 Top Score in 2025

Mar 25, 3:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2611304

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.8%chance

346732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

667

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.24%chance

346305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1627

88

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

304276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

722

Will "Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

3425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

982

Any ARC‑AGI‑3 Preview submission solves at least one private game level?

Jul 31, 2:02 AMAug 26, 1:59 AM

75.25%chance

4166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

57

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2100

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