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Prediction markets for ARC AGI

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.98%chance

295873535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59619

2082

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

6763832

OptionProbability

01/01/2030

01/01/2028

01/01/2026

01/01/2025

98

96

94

0

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.09%chance

8153171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2525

28

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56%chance

6914187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1938

31

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.09%chance

428808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1227

815

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.67%chance

396500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1617

91

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.15%chance

314290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

341966

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2029

2030-2049

2023-2024

47

31

20

2

Google DeepMind announces a model that outperforms humans on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark before January 15, 2026

Aug 9, 12:58 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3.36%chance

151249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

536

19

Will scaling transformers lead to a 60% score on ARC-AGI-2?

Apr 25, 3:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69%chance

20780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

68

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3500

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

25

17

10

10

10

10

10

10

Will "Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

3425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

982

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