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Prediction markets for ARC Prize

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.08%chance

286687435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23417

4733

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

6556376

OptionProbability

01/01/2030

01/01/2028

01/01/2026

01/01/2025

95

92

87

0

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.98%chance

7746722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2022

53

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.46%chance

6211825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1898

85

Will the ARC Prize Foundation succeed at making a new benchmark that is easy for humans but still hard for the best AIs?

Jan 9, 5:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.77%chance

298987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2679

373

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.8%chance

346732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

667

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.24%chance

346305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1627

88

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.15%chance

314290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

311871

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2027-2029

2025-2026

2023-2024

39

38

20

3

Most successful approach in 2025 ARC Prize competition

Dec 16, 4:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

3109

OptionProbability

Deep learning-guided program synthesis

Test-time training (TTT) for transductive models

Combining program synthesis with transductive models

Other approaches

Other

29

19

17

17

17

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2100

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