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Prediction markets for ARC Prize

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.91%chance

7316992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1958

20

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.43%chance

449658

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

746

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.38%chance

314354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

773

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

351996

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2029

2030-2049

2023-2024

52

36

11

2

Will I get a job at an AI lab within before April 2026?

Dec 19, 6:56 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

59.22%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

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