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Top stories

Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor

Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for ARC

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3047254

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

99

1

0

0

0

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.39%chance

6012486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1590

670

Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

3412236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.18%chance

6011339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

1000

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.53%chance

5210288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

79

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.02%chance

334467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

SBF Redemption Arc

Nov 11, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.94%chance

241663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

915

Will Hajrudin awaken Conqueror’s Haki during the Elbaph Arc?

Jan 19, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.21%chance

8558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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