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Prediction markets for ARC
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
15.89%chance
286686677
OptionVotes
22659
4871
By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM
6556376
OptionProbability
95
92
87
0
OptionVotes
1372
729
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?
Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
5.37%chance
7646712
OptionVotes
2175
43
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.15%chance
6011897
OptionVotes
1399
728
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31.46%chance
6211825
OptionVotes
1898
85
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.8%chance
346732
OptionVotes
1499
667
OptionVotes
1627
88
OptionVotes
1385
722
OptionVotes
2369
422
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
Mar 23, 10:07 AMJan 1, 4:00 PM
24.45%chance
342052
OptionVotes
1162
904
Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000