Area Three News

Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?

Nov 13, 6:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.15%chance

5010715

OptionVotes

YES

2570

389

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

7177

3289

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

53.85%chance

604322

OptionVotes

YES

1031

947

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

372766

OptionVotes

YES

1206

796

Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Jan 13, 8:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

262359

OptionProbability

Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

Preventing S-Risks

Wild-animal welfare

Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

Climate geoengineeering

Preventing stable totalitarianism

Space governance / space colonization

Georgism (aka land value taxes)

Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

Cryonics & brain-emulation research

Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

Civilizational-preservation bunkers

Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

Will the "Sky Shield" proposal and European fighter jets over Ukraine become reality in 2025?

Mar 6, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.27%chance

11859

OptionVotes

YES

399

246

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.51%chance

25837

OptionVotes

YES

1458

911

When will Russia capture Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk)?

Jul 20, 2:06 PMApr 1, 12:37 PM

8129

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

Oct 12, 10:19 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

59.57%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will TA2 funding be solicited in 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]

May 6, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58.3%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

118

Area Three News

Prediction markets for Area Three

Prediction markets for Area Three

Prediction markets for Area Three

Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Will the "Sky Shield" proposal and European fighter jets over Ukraine become reality in 2025?

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

When will Russia capture Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk)?

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

Will TA2 funding be solicited in 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]

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