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Prediction markets for Area Two

Los Angeles Fires - Coordinated Arson?

Jan 10, 8:00 AMJan 10, 7:59 AM

1%chance

66307599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230319

20

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

372766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

796

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.59%chance

301040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

838

Will I be able to see the peak of Mt. Rainier?

Aug 5, 2:02 PMSep 18, 1:53 PM

68.86%chance

12990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

672

Will Indonesia open embassy in Israel before the end of 2025

Apr 11, 4:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

18.82%chance

19973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

725

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

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