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Prediction markets for ARENA

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.73%chance

78970558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200868

63036

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Mar 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

163192272

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Other

Anthropic

Mistral

Meta

74

11

10

3

2

0

0

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

112116314

OptionProbability

Google

xAI

OpenAI

None listed here

Anthropic

Meta

79

10

4

3

2

1

Which company has best AI model end of 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Aug 8, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9687112

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Moonshot AI

Other

72

21

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

Gemini 3.0 scores 1500+ on Chatbot Arena in 2025? (Without Style Control)

Nov 15, 4:53 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

6.23%chance

7326147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3881

258

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.54%chance

579572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4586

218

any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/ reaches an Arena Score of at least 1520.0 (≥1520)

Nov 23, 4:04 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23.53%chance

228286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

555

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

10.71%chance

226225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2888

346

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.38%chance

19838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

867

Will Magic: The Gathering Arena introduce bots in multiplayer by the end of 2025?

Dec 3, 8:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.71%chance

7700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

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