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Prediction markets for ARENA

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

73.74%chance

2918608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16683

6050

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

1.83%chance

247188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7941

572

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144373

OptionProbability

Anthropic / Claude

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

Meta / Llama

DeepSeek

Microsoft

Mistral

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Apple

100

100

70

33

11

8

5

2

1

1

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

171037

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Mistral

Cohere

79

70

64

34

34

34

31

25

18

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

14845

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

59

49

43

38

38

35

34

17

Will "New ARENA material: 8 exercise sets on alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 5, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM

5379

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

96

95

95

54

24

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

Jul 9, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

85.31%chance

10301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?

Sep 1, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.12%chance

7205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?

May 3, 3:57 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

43%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

When will the Crypto.com Arena be renamed?

Nov 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

36%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

87

57

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