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ARENA News

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

52.56%chance

2712373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10434

9590

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

2.95%chance

244638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5391

632

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

184149

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Nvidia

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Reka AI

Cohere (Command R+)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

NexusFlow (Athene)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

01 AI (Yi)

100

100

100

100

100

83

82

80

40

39

20

18

18

17

16

15

11

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Mar 9, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

353652

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

Tencent

Cohere

Alibaba

100

100

64

48

18

18

15

14

12

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

436

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Dec 19, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76%chance

91954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

172

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

151002

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Mistral

Cohere

82

70

64

42

34

34

31

25

18

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

14845

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

59

49

43

38

38

35

34

17

Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?

May 8, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.47%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

629

16

Will "New ARENA material: 8 exercise sets on alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 5, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Will I make Mythic on Arena without spending any money?

Mar 1, 6:05 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.93%chance

9250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

203

Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?

May 3, 3:57 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

43%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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