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Prediction markets for ARENA

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.82%chance

2511131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10330

9674

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2410099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

19.76%chance

246475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2015

496

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Mar 9, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

262211

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Tencent

Meta

Alibaba

Cohere

100

70

51

46

22

20

17

17

14

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.2%chance

21988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

847

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13815

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

55

43

40

38

38

35

34

17

Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?

May 8, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.47%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

629

16

Will Grok 4.2 be profitable on Prediction Arena end of February 2026?

Jan 27, 5:11 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

56.75%chance

10626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

Jul 9, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

85.31%chance

10301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

Will I make Mythic on Arena without spending any money?

Mar 1, 6:05 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.93%chance

9250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

203

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

First Thinking Machines model LM Text Arena rank?

Jun 10, 6:34 AMJul 31, 6:21 AM

579

OptionProbability

6 - 10

1 - 5

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

26 - 30

Above 30

33

19

15

9

9

9

6

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