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Prediction markets for ARENA

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 16, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76166221

OptionProbability

OpenAI

xAI

Alphabet / Google

OpenAI (after January)

OpenAI (after February)

Google (after February)

xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)

Google (after 2.5 release)

OpenAI (May or later)

DeepSeek

Moonshot

Anthropic

xAI (April or later)

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Meta

Microsoft (?)

Apple (?)

Mistral

Reka AI

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

93

89

12

9

8

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 1, 5:31 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

88128007

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

xAI

Anthropic

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

Meta

56

39

1

1

1

1

1

0

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9789303

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

None listed here

Meta

39

27

12

10

9

3

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Mar 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12278731

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Other

Anthropic

Meta

Mistral

41

29

10

10

8

1

0

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.35%chance

3947145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118404

88423

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

10.71%chance

226225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2888

346

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

15.87%chance

505550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?

Mar 29, 12:31 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

74.34%chance

223032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

699

Non-style controlled Arena Score removed from the Chatbot Arena before 2026? [lmarena.ai]

May 29, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.55%chance

22520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3271

306

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.82%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

875

Will Magic: The Gathering Arena introduce bots in multiplayer by the end of 2025?

Dec 3, 8:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.93%chance

6690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

592

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