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ARISE News

    Prediction markets for ARISE

    Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

    Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    45.18%chance
    466435

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1036

    945

    OptionProbability

    Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-

    Other

    My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON

    DAN DA DAN Season 2

    SPY×FAMILY Season 3

    Kaiju No.8 SEASON 2

    WIND BREAKER Season 2

    Fire Force Season 3

    Dr. STONE SCIENCE FUTURE

    SAKAMOTO DAYS

    47

    12

    10

    10

    7

    5

    3

    2

    2

    2

    Best Manifold Quotes of 2025

    Jun 10, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    123304

    OptionProbability

    Other

    "when you go to bury someone you put them in the hole in the ground, not the pile of dirt beside it"

    "It's such a bad allocation of time to learn a language so much people already know" - @jim

    "I think I'm a victim of money laundering and I am looking for legal representation" - rubyatmidnight

    "sheep always think they're getting the better of the wolf. But sheep are not better bettors, nor are clowns to frown, for the wolves idly wait by, for the inevitable to arise" - @PeterNjeim

    69

    21

    6

    3

    2

    OptionProbability

    Party

    People('s)

    Left/leftist(s)

    The

    Your

    Voice

    Us/We/Our

    Committee

    Social/socialist(s)

    Worker(‘s)

    Collective

    National

    Democracy/democrat(s)

    UK

    British

    Equal/equality/equity/egalitarian

    Labour

    Arise

    Peace

    Justice

    Reclaim

    Alliance

    Communist

    Corbyn

    Liberal

    Momentum

    Jezbollah

    76

    53

    41

    40

    25

    24

    23

    16

    15

    15

    15

    14

    10

    10

    9

    9

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    1

    OptionProbability

    Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-

    Witch Hat Atelier

    Gachiakuta

    To Your Eternity Season 3

    Other

    Black Butler: Emerald Witch Arc

    Fate/strange Fake

    The Beginning After the End

    80

    6

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    What's true about time's arrow

    Aug 11, 3:19 PMJan 1, 3:32 PM
    8226

    OptionProbability

    Different observers may have time's arrows pointing in different directions

    Anthropic selection: observers necessarily find themselves in regions with increasing entropy

    The arrow reflects brute initial conditions; there is no deeper explanation to be had

    Growth of quantum entanglement under unitary dynamics explains thermodynamic irreversibility

    Gravitational instability and cosmological expansion generate the observed thermodynamic arrow

    Inflationary cosmology dynamically selects special low-entropy initial conditions, explaining the arrow

    Entropy increase is emergent from coarse-graining and typicality; no deeper micro-physical asymmetry is needed

    Time’s arrow arises from asymmetric boundary conditions at both temporal ends (two-time boundary conditions)

    Landauer’s principle and information-erasure costs make entropy increase a consequence of information processing constraints

    The Past Hypothesis is a fundamental lawlike assumption, and a low-entropy beginning fixes the arrow

    Computational irreversibility and algorithmic complexity growth are the deeper source of the arrow

    Objective quantum-collapse dynamics are time-directed (e.g., GRW), grounding macroscopic irreversibility

    Penrose’s Weyl curvature hypothesis: near-vanishing initial Weyl curvature sets the gravitational arrow

    60

    48

    47

    41

    41

    35

    34

    34

    34

    33

    30

    25

    25

    OptionProbability

    Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.

    Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area

    Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women

    Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI

    The Odyssean Institute

    Mechanical Library

    Educate the public about high impact causes

    Science prediction markets for replicability

    Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action

    Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.

    Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies

    LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments

    Building software to demystify land use regulations

    Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use

    Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)

    Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression

    MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks

    Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives

    H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training

    Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides

    Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge

    Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.

    Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss

    Upgrade YIMBY messaging

    Publish a book on Egan education for parents

    Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.

    Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM

    Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling

    Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science

    Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act

    Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts

    Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries

    Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty

    Year one of AI Safety Tokyo

    Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan

    Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks

    Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability

    Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India

    An online science platform

    Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity

    Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology

    News through prediction markets

    A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform

    Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality

    Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning

    Replicate social science research

    Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers

    Empower Ukraine: Invest in Businesses Driving Positive Change

    75

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    47

    40

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Venezuela

    Haiti

    Brazil

    Other country, unlisted here by the time the first suspect case arises

    Dominican Republic

    Peru

    Argentina

    Bahamas

    Ecuador

    Panama

    Suriname

    46

    38

    12

    3

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What's true about the beginning of the universe?

    Aug 9, 5:43 PMAug 10, 5:32 PM
    7139

    OptionProbability

    The beginning is fundamentally unknowable with any current and future observations.

    There is change in spacetime signature (e.g., Hartle-Hawking proposal of Euclidean to Lorentzian signature)

    The universe is eternal and has no beginning.

    The universe arises out of quantum tunneling from ‘nothing’, and the process can be described by a Lorentzian path integral (e.g., Vilenkin's proposal).

    The observable universe budded off as a baby universe from a black hole.

    48

    26

    24

    20

    10

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    120

    45

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    76

    70

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