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Prediction markets for ARR

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.6%chance

2019659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18647

5382

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Aug 15, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.13%chance

1149580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2258

2013

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.43%chance

207725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7901

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?

Jul 30, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.08%chance

384273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

656

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will there be arrests over the Epstein files in the US?

Feb 8, 9:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

27.84%chance

292539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1610

621

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

171558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

1020

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

Will Hunter Biden be arrested between Dec 2024-Dec 2028 for any crimes committed following his pardon?

Dec 7, 2:07 PMDec 1, 3:59 PM

19.31%chance

111371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

489

AI snitch arrest by EOY2026?

May 31, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.37%chance

171075

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

708

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2030?

Mar 31, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

83.15%chance

13495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

915

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

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