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Prediction markets for ARR

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Aug 15, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.94%chance

11510413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3091

1754

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.42%chance

227750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12660

7899

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.69%chance

216349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5359

1039

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?

Jul 30, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.08%chance

384273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

656

Will there be arrests over the Epstein files in the US?

Feb 8, 9:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

313167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

707

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

AI snitch arrest by EOY2026?

May 31, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

171431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1651

606

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.81%chance

2475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?

May 29, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

3400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?

Apr 24, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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