ARR News

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Aug 15, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.6%chance

11711390

OptionVotes

YES

2662

1873

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.56%chance

237773

OptionVotes

YES

12623

7922

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

216599

OptionVotes

YES

5609

1010

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?

Jul 30, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.54%chance

394293

OptionVotes

YES

1544

648

Will there be arrests over the Epstein files in the US?

Feb 8, 9:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

23.02%chance

333561

OptionVotes

YES

1829

547

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1070

Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?

May 29, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

3400

OptionVotes

YES

1400

714

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

1004

989

Anthropic props — October ARR public before IPO?

Oct 19, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5303

OptionProbability

Will the final S-1 confirm that the co-founders retain 50.1% or more of the collective voting power?

Will Anthropic release October 2026 ARR or revenue figures before their stock publicly trades?

Will Binance Anthropic perpetuals trade higher 3 hours after the S-1 is public relative to the price right before the release?

Will Binance Anthropic perpetuals trade >5% higher 3 hours after the S-1 is public relative to the price right before the release?

Will the S-1 reveal that Anthropic's revenue is concentrated, in that 2 customers account for >20% of their latest run-rate revenue?

100

Elon Musk and SpaceX props (Add Options)

Oct 21, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

319

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX report at least 8 GW of nameplate AI compute capacity as of December 31, 2027?

Will SpaceX report at least $35 billion in total GAAP revenue for Q1 2027?

Will SpaceX reach $400B annualized recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of 2027?

Will Grok exceed 10% of paid frontier-model API revenue by YE2027?

What will OpenAI + Anthropic's combined annualized revenue run rate (ARR) be at year-end 2027?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

$350-$449B

$450-$550B

>$550B

less than $350B

If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?

Apr 24, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.5%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

ARR News

Prediction markets for ARR

Prediction markets for ARR

Prediction markets for ARR

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?

Will there be arrests over the Epstein files in the US?

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

Anthropic props — October ARR public before IPO?

Elon Musk and SpaceX props (Add Options)

What will OpenAI + Anthropic's combined annualized revenue run rate (ARR) be at year-end 2027?

If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?

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