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Prediction markets for ARR

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

2730466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

29302

3425

Will Anthropic reach 50 billion in ARR by the end of June?

Apr 7, 4:13 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

55.63%chance

4511101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

893

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Aug 15, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.69%chance

11510080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2758

1844

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.42%chance

227750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12660

7899

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

1120

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?

Jul 30, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.08%chance

384273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

656

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

AI snitch arrest by EOY2026?

May 31, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.36%chance

171331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.81%chance

2475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?

May 29, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

3400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?

Apr 24, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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