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Prediction markets for ARR

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.52%chance

1718130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17131

5858

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Aug 15, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

1149539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2157

2054

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.43%chance

207725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7901

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?

Jul 30, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.08%chance

384273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

656

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?

Oct 15, 3:07 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.84%chance

223432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

731

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.05%chance

82900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1880

532

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.27%chance

161507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

1048

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

AI snitch arrest by EOY2026?

May 31, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.59%chance

161047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

680

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

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