Ars Technica News

11 months ago

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3377099

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

YES

12271

8388

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

2.55%chance

115324

OptionVotes

YES

6186

162

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

3019

331

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

1330

752

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

YES

1141

876

Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps

May 14, 2:12 PMAug 31, 4:00 PM

91.34%chance

12281

OptionVotes

YES

325

Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?

Feb 17, 3:37 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM

23.84%chance

577

OptionVotes

YES

126

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps

Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

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