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Prediction markets for Artificial Agency

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

18.22%chance

182717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2119

472

Will the US require speed limiting devices on cars by 2030?

Aug 13, 3:25 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.28%chance

171777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

978

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?

Sep 7, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.97%chance

12622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

397

25

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Nov 25, 9:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

5431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

Yes, by 2100

No

62

37

Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?

Jul 19, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

673

OptionProbability

Chinese state or private enterprise

No artificial-gravity station launched by resolution date

US Company and/or NASA

European company or agency

Russian company or Roscosmos

Other

28

28

12

12

10

10

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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