Artificial Analysis News

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

3.52%chance

12127176

OptionVotes

YES

9820

1570

Which company has best Text-to-Video AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

Dec 18, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

363936

OptionProbability

Google DeepMind

ByteDance

MiniMax

Other

OpenAI

Kuaishou

Tencent

Genmo

Runway

Haiper

Which company has best Text-to-Image AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

Dec 18, 7:21 AMDec 31, 8:09 PM

183306

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

ByteDance

Other

Black Forest Labs (FLUX)

Midjourney

HiDream

Ideogram

Stability.ai

Playground AI

Amazon

DeepSeek

Blueberry

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

1175

946

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.68%chance

4355

OptionVotes

YES

1353

739

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Aug 3, 5:44 AMAug 8, 3:34 PM

10338

OptionProbability

🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

Other

🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

Will Terence Tao publish a Math paper such that some result was solved by AI before 2028?

May 28, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.6%chance

10309

OptionVotes

YES

162

Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.89%chance

10240

OptionVotes

YES

240

162

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.65%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

263

Artificial Analysis News

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Which company has best Text-to-Video AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

Which company has best Text-to-Image AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Will Terence Tao publish a Math paper such that some result was solved by AI before 2028?

Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030?

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

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