Artificial Analysis News

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

3512709

OptionProbability

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.64%chance

359309

OptionVotes

YES

1482

677

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

1175

946

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?

Mar 25, 6:11 PMDec 31, 7:10 PM

422595

OptionProbability

It will be released by January 2027

It will be SOTA on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

It will be released by May 2026

It is GPT 5.5 (including any variations, as long as GPT 5.5 is in the name)

It uses a novel architecture

It will have a METR 50% of 20+ hours

It is an open source model

It is GPT 6

It will have a modality beyond text, image, and video

100

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

YES

1853

540

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18594

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

DeepSeek

xAI

Moonshot AI

Other

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Aug 3, 5:44 AMAug 8, 3:34 PM

12496

OptionProbability

🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

Other

🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

UK Parliament redefines 'person' to include AI for admin by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.51%chance

6409

OptionVotes

YES

414

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

313

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

121

Artificial Analysis News

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Elon Musk (props)

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

UK Parliament redefines 'person' to include AI for admin by '27?

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

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