Artificial Superintelligence News

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.71%chance

339104484

OptionVotes

YES

5342

3569

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22.32%chance

6420078

OptionVotes

YES

1426

822

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

Jan 29, 8:41 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

19.78%chance

434185

OptionVotes

YES

2014

497

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35%chance

563073

OptionVotes

YES

992

926

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

499

284

Artificial superintelligence will 'peacefully take control of humanity' before what year?

Jul 31, 11:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41252

OptionProbability

2100

2050

2028

Other

2030

2029

2027

2025

2026

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

May 3, 2:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16756

OptionProbability

Other

Mikhail Mishustin

Ivan Melnikov

Dmitry Patrushev

Dmitry Medvedev

Sergey Kiriyenko

Nikolai Patrushev

An artificial superintelligence (may or may not control rest of Earth too)

Alexei Dyumin

Sergei Sobyanin

What will cause civilization to end?

Dec 16, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11215

OptionProbability

Other

Solar Flare or other space energy event

Supervolcano / Eruption that darkens the sky for more than 2 years.

Artificial Superintelligence

Aftermath of an asteroid collision with earth

Nuclear War

Global Pandemic

Who is the antichrist?

Aug 21, 1:45 PMJan 1, 2:40 PM

13195

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Peter Thiel

the antichrist

Any political or economic abstraction, such as "the state" or "capitalism"

Other

Artificial superintelligence (any)

Donald Trump

The emperor Nero

Aleister Crowley

Elon Musk

Anyone who denies the Father and the Son (1 John 2:22)

The Pope (any)

proto-gnostics in ancient Ephesus

Mark Zuckerberg

My vegetarian friend who only eats meat once a year on Good Friday

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

Jan 7, 3:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.47%chance

11194

OptionVotes

YES

275

116

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Feb 4, 12:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10144

OptionProbability

Humans on Mars

Operational Fusion Power Plants

Superintelligent Artificial General Intelligence

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

Apr 5, 1:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

864

OptionVotes

YES

126

Artificial Superintelligence News

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Artificial superintelligence will 'peacefully take control of humanity' before what year?

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

What will cause civilization to end?

Who is the antichrist?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

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