Artificial Superintelligence News

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

5080

3679

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.46%chance

9394808

OptionVotes

YES

1655

825

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.09%chance

6820483

OptionVotes

YES

1626

770

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

Jan 29, 8:41 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

19.78%chance

434185

OptionVotes

YES

2014

497

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.34%chance

573097

OptionVotes

YES

956

946

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

499

284

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

May 3, 2:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16756

OptionProbability

Other

Mikhail Mishustin

Ivan Melnikov

Dmitry Patrushev

Dmitry Medvedev

Sergey Kiriyenko

Nikolai Patrushev

An artificial superintelligence (may or may not control rest of Earth too)

Alexei Dyumin

Sergei Sobyanin

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

Jan 7, 3:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67.93%chance

12217

OptionVotes

YES

215

139

What will cause civilization to end?

Dec 16, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11215

OptionProbability

Other

Solar Flare or other space energy event

Supervolcano / Eruption that darkens the sky for more than 2 years.

Artificial Superintelligence

Aftermath of an asteroid collision with earth

Nuclear War

Global Pandemic

Who is the antichrist?

Aug 21, 1:45 PMJan 1, 2:40 PM

13195

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Peter Thiel

the antichrist

Any political or economic abstraction, such as "the state" or "capitalism"

Other

Artificial superintelligence (any)

Donald Trump

The emperor Nero

Aleister Crowley

Elon Musk

Anyone who denies the Father and the Son (1 John 2:22)

The Pope (any)

proto-gnostics in ancient Ephesus

Mark Zuckerberg

My vegetarian friend who only eats meat once a year on Good Friday

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Feb 4, 12:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10144

OptionProbability

Humans on Mars

Operational Fusion Power Plants

Superintelligent Artificial General Intelligence

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

Apr 5, 1:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

41.09%chance

968

OptionVotes

YES

120

Artificial Superintelligence News

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

What will cause civilization to end?

Who is the antichrist?

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

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