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Prediction markets for ARX

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2026

May 5, 2:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.24%chance

213703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3766

842

Will Sydney Von Arx have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Oct 4, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.29%chance

51728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2354

425

Will arxiv still exist in 2030?

Mar 22, 1:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.75%chance

171526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

937

Will arxiv still exist in 2040?

Mar 22, 1:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.6%chance

20911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1209

913

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2030

May 5, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.45%chance

18724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

888

One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?

Mar 16, 3:29 PMMar 13, 10:00 PM

12550

OptionProbability

No Change

Mostly Negative

Mostly Positive

59

26

15

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