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Prediction markets for AS

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.7%chance

24871933296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9966

2320

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

31.23%chance

680289058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5543

3793

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

19885389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8337

4727

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.93%chance

3760013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53434

4038

On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?

Jan 22, 3:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.84%chance

5756104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54214

4018

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.92%chance

20852708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

1386

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.91%chance

9443785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

921

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

68%chance

12929843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11121

5741

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.51%chance

189152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17089

5852

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

317843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6627

496

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

31.16%chance

124865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14865

6727

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

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