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Top stories

American Soybean Association Urges Trump to Secure China Trade Deal as Farmers Face 53% Export Drop, China Turns to Brazil

American Soybean Association Urges Trump to Secure China Trade Deal as Farmers Face 53% Export Drop, China Turns to Brazil

Authors

16

4 months ago

Prediction markets for ASA

Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?

Nov 11, 5:20 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

3.43%chance

443132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53088

1884

Who will win the 2028 Republican primary?

Mar 27, 2:27 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

639311

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump

Ron de Santis

Asa

Vivek Ramaswamy

Chris Christie

Doug Burgum

Mike Pence

Larry Elder

Perry Johnson

Will Hurd

Francis Suarez

Nikki Haley

Tim Scott

74

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

Asap Rocky releases "Don't be Dumb" album in 2025?

Apr 28, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.06%chance

86299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4329

231

When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2023 MacBook Pro?

Jan 26, 2:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

136055

OptionProbability

Not before 2026

July 1 - September 30 2025

April 1 - June 30 2025

October 1 - December 31 2025

January 1 - March 31 2025

October 1 - December 31 2024

Before April 2024

April 1 - June 30 2024

July 1 - September 30 2024

36

18

16

13

10

3

1

1

1

Derik Queen for Asa Newell and what # pick in the 2026 NBA draft (via NOP to ATL)?

Jun 29, 7:07 PMJun 29, 10:59 PM

3439

OptionProbability

4-6 (Bad trade)

2-3 (Really bad for NOP)

7-10 (somewhat defensible)

1 (Worst case for NOP)

11-15 (slight overpay)

16-23 (fair trade)

24-30 (Pelicans won)

33

24

18

13

7

3

2

US Politician Stocks

Apr 4, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10358

OptionProbability

Donald Trump

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden

Other

Tucker Carlson

Gavin Newsom

Elise Stefanik

J.B. Pritzker

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ted Cruz

Hillary Clinton

Dean Phillips

Kristi Noem

Michelle Obama

Kamala Harris

Mike Pence

Chris Christie

Asa Hutchinson

Tim Scott

14

11

9

9

7

7

6

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

Oct 12, 10:02 PMJan 31, 5:00 AM

28.6%chance

11234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

151

Will Emmanuella Asabor (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.91%chance

5179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

112

Will "We should try to automate AI safety work asap" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 10:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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