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Prediction markets for ASA
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?
Nov 11, 5:20 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
3.56%chance
1150592
OptionVotes
52049
1924
OptionProbability
74
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
Total number of alcohol beverages consumed on the Round Table boys trip to Nashville in March 2026
Jan 14, 5:45 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM
61759
OptionProbability
99
99
99
99
82
47
36
12
OptionProbability
22
13
11
8
6
5
5
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035
Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53%chance
6549
OptionVotes
106
94
Derik Queen for Asa Newell and what # pick in the 2026 NBA draft (via NOP to ATL)?
Jun 29, 7:07 PMJun 29, 10:59 PM
3439
OptionProbability
33
24
18
13
7
3
2
[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
Oct 12, 10:02 PMJan 31, 5:00 AM
28.6%chance
11234
OptionVotes
400
351
Will Emmanuella Asabor (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.91%chance
5179
OptionVotes
241
112
When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2024 M3 MacBook Pro?
Feb 25, 5:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
2157
OptionProbability
34
22
16
8
4
4
4
4
4
UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030
Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31%chance
568
OptionVotes
149
67
Will "We should try to automate AI safety work asap" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 20, 10:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.73%chance
255
OptionVotes
1020
997