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Prediction markets for Ascertain

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.93%chance

23459582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

662

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?

Oct 4, 7:30 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

6.59%chance

668574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3399

207

When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2023 MacBook Pro?

Jan 26, 2:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

136055

OptionProbability

Not before 2026

July 1 - September 30 2025

April 1 - June 30 2025

October 1 - December 31 2025

January 1 - March 31 2025

October 1 - December 31 2024

Before April 2024

April 1 - June 30 2024

July 1 - September 30 2024

36

18

16

13

10

3

1

1

1

When will Putin die?

Jun 28, 7:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

425178

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2039

Before 2038

Before 2037

Before 2036

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

73

64

61

57

55

48

42

36

34

32

30

30

19

8

2

0

If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?

Mar 15, 10:49 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

96.29%chance

264513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5145

529

How many accusations of plagiarism against MIT faculty will be release by Bill Ackman’s investigation?

Jan 6, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

432063

OptionProbability

1-10 Faculty

10-20 faculty

0 faculty

20-50 faculty

50-100 faculty

100+ faculty

38

28

12

11

8

3

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

77.12%chance

201243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

868

Dems+GOP at all times hold >96% of each: US House, Senate, Governors, and state legislatures

Sep 6, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93%chance

5801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

101

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

Dec 2, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

63.31%chance

698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

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