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Prediction markets for Ascertain

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

765

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?

Oct 4, 7:30 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

4.29%chance

7722309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4219

163

If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?

Mar 15, 10:49 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

95.74%chance

287025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4634

550

When will Putin die?

Jun 28, 7:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

536780

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2039

Before 2038

Before 2037

Before 2036

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

73

64

59

57

53

48

41

37

33

29

25

18

12

6

0

0

How many accusations of plagiarism against MIT faculty will be release by Bill Ackman’s investigation?

Jan 6, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

432067

OptionProbability

1-10 Faculty

10-20 faculty

0 faculty

20-50 faculty

50-100 faculty

100+ faculty

39

28

12

9

8

3

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

76.4%chance

211281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

879

Dems+GOP at all times hold >96% of each: US House, Senate, Governors, and state legislatures

Sep 6, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93%chance

5801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

101

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

Dec 2, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

58%chance

10503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

185

In the 2028 presidential election will at least one state assign its electoral votes based on the national popular vote?

Aug 23, 8:45 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

15.35%chance

8246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

43

When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2024 M3 MacBook Pro?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2157

OptionProbability

2027

2028

Jul-Sep 2026

Oct-Dec 2026

Mar-Jun 2026

2029

2030

2031-2035

2036+

34

22

16

8

4

4

4

4

4

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