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Prediction markets for Ascertain

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

35.09%chance

282109556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

911

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?

Oct 4, 7:30 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

3.63%chance

7822659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4569

149

When will Putin die?

Jun 28, 7:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

557480

OptionProbability

Before 2042

Before 2041

Before 2040

Before 2039

Before 2038

Before 2037

Before 2036

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

90

70

68

64

59

57

53

49

41

39

37

27

27

18

11

5

0

0

If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?

Mar 15, 10:49 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

95.85%chance

297125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4734

545

How many accusations of plagiarism against MIT faculty will be release by Bill Ackman’s investigation?

Jan 6, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

432067

OptionProbability

1-10 Faculty

10-20 faculty

0 faculty

20-50 faculty

50-100 faculty

100+ faculty

39

28

12

9

8

3

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

Dec 2, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

58%chance

10503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

185

In the 2028 presidential election will at least one state assign its electoral votes based on the national popular vote?

Aug 23, 8:45 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

15.35%chance

8246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4135

3943

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