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Prediction markets for Ascertain

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

6.73%chance

24063435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

540

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?

Oct 4, 7:30 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

2.7%chance

6710578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5269

126

When will Putin die?

Jun 28, 7:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

465670

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2039

Before 2038

Before 2037

Before 2036

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

73

64

61

57

55

48

42

36

34

31

30

25

12

6

0

0

If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?

Mar 15, 10:49 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

95.96%chance

264833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4824

542

How many accusations of plagiarism against MIT faculty will be release by Bill Ackman’s investigation?

Jan 6, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

432067

OptionProbability

1-10 Faculty

10-20 faculty

0 faculty

20-50 faculty

50-100 faculty

100+ faculty

39

28

12

9

8

3

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

76.4%chance

201279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

879

Dems+GOP at all times hold >96% of each: US House, Senate, Governors, and state legislatures

Sep 6, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93%chance

5801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

101

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

Dec 2, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

58%chance

10503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

185

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