ASL News

YES

NO

NO

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

YES

2030

2029

2028

2027

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

NO