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Prediction markets for Aspiration

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

Aug 17, 11:50 PMAug 25, 6:59 AM

1.45%chance

53194237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8250

121

When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?

Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82617

OptionProbability

After 2035

Only after superintelligence is achieved

2031-2035

2029-2030

2027-2028

2026

July-Dec 2025

Feb-June 2025

69

49

45

35

20

10

8

0

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

75.64%chance

392362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

567

What will be lowest Democracy Index received by the United States during the Trump Presidency?

Apr 17, 7:54 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

61793

OptionProbability

7.00-7.99

6.00-6.99

5.00-5.99

4.00-4.99

3.99 or lower

8.00 or higher

50

28

9

8

3

2

Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?

Nov 22, 11:06 PMJul 5, 4:59 AM

92%chance

291629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

339

29

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

May 18, 7:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

221622

OptionProbability

The scandal is forgotten without major change

OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy

Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI

The government takes action against OpenAI

OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy

The NDAs grow into a major popular backlash against OpenAI

64

61

60

58

39

20

Which Canadian Leaders will JJ McCullough interview by December 31st 2025?

Dec 7, 6:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4706

OptionProbability

Pierre Poilievre (Conservative)

Justin Trudeau (Liberal)

Jagmeet Singh (NDP)

Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois)

Maxime Bernier (People's)

Elizabeth May (Green)

11

3

3

1

1

1

LeBron retires before 2026 NBA season?

Jun 15, 10:10 AMOct 20, 10:59 PM

5.42%chance

12501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

24

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.89%chance

11439

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1013

987

Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?

Jul 11, 2:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.07%chance

5389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

485

21

Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027?

Jun 14, 8:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

54

Will I be a cracked VFX artist in 2025? Mentor's response:

Jul 12, 5:27 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

325

OptionProbability

Yes

...What?

66

55

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