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Prediction markets for Aspiration

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

7.32%chance

10013504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3559

281

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

tesla robot will 'Walk' on the moon in 2028

Apr 1, 4:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

162069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029

Feb 1, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

0.56%chance

131367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

74

When will the Aspirational Neuroscience Memory Decoding Prize be won, if it is won by 2045?

Dec 20, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5645

OptionProbability

2027

2035

2031

2033

2029

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

Later than 2045 or never

59

7

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?

Jun 7, 10:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.23%chance

10575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

45

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.06%chance

12539

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1087

906

The result, assuming the Gulf Stream System (AMOC) collapses. (aspirational or the opposite this market will ever close)

Aug 29, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5120

OptionProbability

Cold winters in Europe

At least Mini Ice Age

>10 Iconic species go extinct

Major crop types essentially wiped out

Fullblown Ice Age

Population collapse of humans to <25% current

80

66

66

57

50

10

Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 29, 3:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.7%chance

5119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

891

Will London Breed run for public office in 2025-2030?

Apr 12, 2:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

73.39%chance

9115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Will the state of New Mexico launch its medical psilocybin program before April 20, 2027?

Jan 1, 4:53 PMApr 21, 11:59 PM

45.59%chance

353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

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