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Prediction markets for Aspiration

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

7.29%chance

10515625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3566

280

When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?

Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

84259

OptionProbability

After 2035

Only after superintelligence is achieved

2031-2035

2029-2030

2027-2028

2026

Feb-June 2025

July-Dec 2025

69

49

22

18

10

4

0

0

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

79%chance

432588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1939

516

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

May 18, 7:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

262097

OptionProbability

The scandal is forgotten without major change

OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy

Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI

The government takes action against OpenAI

OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy

The NDAs grow into a major popular backlash against OpenAI

67

61

58

58

27

15

Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029

Feb 1, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

0.63%chance

141368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

75

When will the Aspirational Neuroscience Memory Decoding Prize be won, if it is won by 2045?

Dec 20, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5645

OptionProbability

2027

2035

2031

2033

2029

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

Later than 2045 or never

59

7

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.06%chance

12539

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1087

906

Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?

Jul 11, 2:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.08%chance

7400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

32

The result, assuming the Gulf Stream System (AMOC) collapses. (aspirational or the opposite this market will ever close)

Aug 29, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5120

OptionProbability

Cold winters in Europe

At least Mini Ice Age

>10 Iconic species go extinct

Major crop types essentially wiped out

Fullblown Ice Age

Population collapse of humans to <25% current

80

66

66

57

50

10

Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 29, 3:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.7%chance

5119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

891

Will the state of New Mexico launch its medical psilocybin program before April 20, 2027?

Jan 1, 4:53 PMApr 21, 11:59 PM

45.59%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

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