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Prediction markets for Aspiration

When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?

Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82787

OptionProbability

After 2035

Only after superintelligence is achieved

2031-2035

2029-2030

2027-2028

2026

July-Dec 2025

Feb-June 2025

69

49

45

35

20

10

4

0

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.35%chance

422502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1902

526

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

May 18, 7:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

231906

OptionProbability

The scandal is forgotten without major change

OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy

Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI

The government takes action against OpenAI

OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy

The NDAs grow into a major popular backlash against OpenAI

64

61

60

58

20

15

What will be lowest Democracy Index received by the United States during the Trump Presidency?

Apr 17, 7:54 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

71798

OptionProbability

7.00-7.99

6.00-6.99

5.00-5.99

4.00-4.99

3.99 or lower

8.00 or higher

49

29

9

8

3

2

Which Canadian Leaders will JJ McCullough interview by December 31st 2025?

Dec 7, 6:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4706

OptionProbability

Pierre Poilievre (Conservative)

Justin Trudeau (Liberal)

Jagmeet Singh (NDP)

Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois)

Maxime Bernier (People's)

Elizabeth May (Green)

11

3

3

1

1

1

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.06%chance

12539

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1087

906

Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?

Jul 11, 2:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.07%chance

5389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

485

21

Will London Breed run for public office in 2025-2030?

Apr 12, 2:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

73.39%chance

9115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

The result, assuming the Gulf Stream System (AMOC) collapses. (aspirational or the opposite this market will ever close)

Aug 29, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4110

OptionProbability

Cold winters in Europe

At least Mini Ice Age

>10 Iconic species go extinct

Major crop types essentially wiped out

Fullblown Ice Age

Population collapse of humans to <25% current

80

66

66

57

50

12

Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027?

Jun 14, 8:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

54

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