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Top stories

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

US Domestic Policy

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Assembly Elections

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

1.83%chance

9534412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7356

561

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3725

268

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79.71%chance

399241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1982

504

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.97%chance

315369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Free Elections in Cuba before the end of 2027

Feb 7, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.03%chance

13485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

904

With Khan voted out, will Keir Starmer be the next ICC chief prosecutor?

Jul 24, 10:02 PMAug 23, 10:01 PM

6.91%chance

11407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

34

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district

Aug 25, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1295

OptionProbability

Rick Zbur (Incumbent)

Colin Hernandez

Other

Dick Lucas

67

25

5

3

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

Jan 14, 2:12 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

77.74%chance

8155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

164

Will Looking for Growth give a London councillor, the London mayor or an MP before 2030?

Jun 17, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.28%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 32nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

433

OptionProbability

Kelly Seyarto (incumbent)

Other

62

38

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