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Top stories

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

US Domestic Policy

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Assembly Elections

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.73%chance

9531769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4074

648

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?

Apr 27, 3:28 PMJun 30, 3:27 PM

4.15%chance

7520091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10981

94

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3725

268

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

74.91%chance

348180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

579

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.32%chance

315311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

899

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district

Aug 25, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1295

OptionProbability

Rick Zbur (Incumbent)

Colin Hernandez

Other

Dick Lucas

67

25

5

3

Free Elections in Cuba before the end of 2027

Feb 7, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

12235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

963

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

Jan 14, 2:12 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

77.74%chance

8155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

164

2026 Victorian state election – 2PP count winner

Jul 6, 4:59 PMNov 29, 11:59 PM

7146

OptionProbability

Liberal-National

Labor

60

40

Will Looking for Growth give a London councillor, the London mayor or an MP before 2030?

Jun 17, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.28%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

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