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Top stories

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

US Domestic Policy

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

Authors

5

14 hours ago

Prediction markets for Assembly Elections

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.1%chance

8225584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4756

624

Will the UK's AI Foundation Models Taskforce survive the Labor party for a year?

Sep 18, 3:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.76%chance

283083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1982

791

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

What percentage of the vote will UPRONA party win in 2025 Burundian National Assembly election?

Jun 3, 6:58 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

1245

OptionProbability

[0-1]

[2-3]

[4-5]

[6-7]

[8-10]

[11-20]

[21-100]

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

How many seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey’s 2025 General Assembly election?

Apr 26, 3:36 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

3182

What percentage of the vote will other parties win in 2025 Burundian National Assembly election?

Jun 3, 7:03 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

1180

OptionProbability

[0-1]

[2-3]

[4-5]

[6-10]

[11-20]

[21-100]

17

17

17

17

17

17

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

Jan 14, 2:12 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

77.74%chance

8155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

164

What percentage of the vote will CNL party win in 2025 Burundian National Assembly election?

Jun 3, 6:54 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

1125

OptionProbability

[0-5]

[6-15]

[16-25]

[26-35]

[36-100]

20

20

20

20

20

Will Looking for Growth give a London councillor, the London mayor or an MP before 2030?

Jun 17, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.28%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

What party will win the most seats in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election in India?

Aug 10, 8:46 PMOct 31, 12:59 AM

220

OptionProbability

RJD [Rashtriya Janata Dal]

BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party]

Other

JD(U) [Janata Dal (United)]

42

21

21

16

California Assembly Dist. 63 election winner 2025-08-26

Aug 2, 9:43 PMAug 29, 11:59 PM

210

OptionProbability

Natasha Johnson

Chris Shoults

50

50

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