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Top stories

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

US Domestic Policy

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Assembly Elections

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

80.53%chance

399304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2034

492

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.62%chance

335596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

789

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.35%chance

291467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

951

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district

Aug 25, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1295

OptionProbability

Rick Zbur (Incumbent)

Colin Hernandez

Other

Dick Lucas

67

25

5

3

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

Jan 14, 2:12 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

77.74%chance

8155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

164

Will Looking for Growth give a London councillor, the London mayor or an MP before 2030?

Jun 17, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.28%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

How many seats will AAP win in the 2027 Punjab Assembly election?

Sep 6, 10:08 AMMar 10, 6:29 PM

224

OptionProbability

0 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 58

59 - 67

68 - 117

20

20

20

20

20

How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

Sep 6, 10:00 AMMar 10, 6:29 PM

14

OptionProbability

0 - 179

180 - 201

202 - 229

230 - 254

255 - 403

20

20

20

20

20

How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Uttarakhand Assembly election?

Sep 6, 10:14 AMMar 10, 6:29 PM

14

OptionProbability

0 - 29

30 - 35

36 - 40

41 - 46

47 - 70

20

20

20

20

20

How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Goa Assembly election?

Sep 6, 10:19 AMMar 10, 6:29 PM

12

OptionProbability

0 - 17

18 - 20

21 - 23

24 - 26

27 - 40

20

20

20

20

20

How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Manipur Assembly election?

Sep 6, 10:25 AMMar 10, 6:29 PM

12

OptionProbability

0 - 19

20 - 25

26 - 30

31 - 35

36 - 60

20

20

20

20

20

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