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Top stories

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

US Domestic Policy

California Democrats Including Gail Pellerin, Sabrina Cervantes Refuse to Identify Authors of Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Maps

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Assembly Elections

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.81%chance

279331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will Orban (Fidesz) win the Hungarian Election on April 12th?

Feb 14, 11:54 AMApr 12, 11:59 PM

33.29%chance

464956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

706

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

224093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.55%chance

182209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

711

2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly Elections Winner

Jan 14, 1:07 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

71670

OptionProbability

AITC

BJP

85

15

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Proportion of seats won by Vijay's TVK in 2026 Tamilnadu Assembly Election?

Aug 24, 3:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

Jan 14, 2:12 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

77.74%chance

8155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

164

Will Looking for Growth give a London councillor, the London mayor or an MP before 2030?

Jun 17, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.28%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district

Aug 25, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Rick Zbur (Incumbent)

Other

Dick Lucas

45

34

22

Will UDF win in the coming Kerala state assembly elections of 2026?

Mar 9, 4:49 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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