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Prediction markets for Asset Entities

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

5.98%chance

33109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3964

252

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

211413

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a week, less than a month

More than a month, less than a year

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

36

24

19

14

3

3

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.96%chance

121088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

623

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

Oct 17, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

10176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will the SSTL Lunar Pathfinder satellite be a success?

Apr 26, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.47%chance

8122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

92

Will one country get 75% of world GDP before 2040?

Jun 28, 1:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.99%chance

777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

If Fox buys Roku, what options would NBCUniversal and Versant do?

Sep 12, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:43 AM

159

OptionProbability

NBCUniversal and Versant would just do nothing.

Versant buys Hallmark Media

NBCUniversal buys A+E Global Media

NBCUniversal and Versant would do both options as shown above

48

23

16

13

Will Amazon buy Saks?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

60

By Sept 7 2031, will an AI securely control a US legal entity and its assets, with no human holding legal authority?

Sep 7, 5:14 AMSep 7, 4:00 AM

20.72%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

94

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