Associations of Persons News

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

167231211

OptionProbability

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

166101364

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Bad Bunny

Zohran Mamdani

Marco Rubio

Xi Jinping

Benjamin Netanyahu

Elon Musk

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Sam Altman

Vladimir Putin

Gavin Newsom

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Jeffrey Epstein

Dario Amodei

James Talarico

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

Jon Ossoff

Kevin Warsh

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

1669

599

Dec 25, 7:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.46%chance

5115

OptionVotes

YES

143

What publicity stunt will lead to the greatest increase in Ten Today's social media following?

Jul 3, 4:31 AMJul 3, 4:16 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Manifold users follow @tentoday

Sexy Calendar

Nuke

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

124

Associations of Persons News

Prediction markets for Associations of Persons

Prediction markets for Associations of Persons

Prediction markets for Associations of Persons

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Is Xi Jinping mentally retarded?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

What is the Interest for personal mana loans?

What publicity stunt will lead to the greatest increase in Ten Today's social media following?

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

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