Associations of Persons News

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

210354538

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

Other

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

204138168

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Zohran Mamdani

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Elon Musk

Xi Jinping

Marco Rubio

James Talarico

Sam Altman

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Dario Amodei

Gavin Newsom

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

Jon Ossoff

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Bad Bunny

Kevin Warsh

Pete Hegseth

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

1492

670

Is Xi Jinping mentally retarded?

Feb 11, 4:17 AMJun 6, 12:00 AM

12.65%chance

544500

OptionVotes

YES

1412

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

YES

1009

826

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.15%chance

381228

OptionVotes

YES

2133

1742

The first state leader born in the 21st century will...

Mar 29, 1:58 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

16915

OptionProbability

Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11

Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State

Be a man (cis or trans)

Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)

Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature

Be considered broadly left-wing in their country

Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent

Have been married

Have been in custody

Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area

Rule an African country

Rule a country with same-sex marriage

Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation

Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime

Come to power as the result of a coup

Be out as LGBTQIA+

Have used a prediction market

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

227

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will I be the pirate king

Jun 11, 12:16 PMJun 11, 12:15 PM

26.97%chance

4113

OptionVotes

YES

161

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

Will one new couple who met at 2026 LO--->Vibecamp festival season have a healthy baby by the first day of August 2027

Jun 15, 10:03 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

61.62%chance

551

OptionVotes

YES

117

Associations of Persons News

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Prediction markets for Associations of Persons

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Is Xi Jinping mentally retarded?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

The first state leader born in the 21st century will...

Is Anthropic woke?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will I be the pirate king

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Will one new couple who met at 2026 LO--->Vibecamp festival season have a healthy baby by the first day of August 2027

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