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Prediction markets for Assurant

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.43%chance

22434827083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19146

4533

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

Will Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028?

Jul 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.1%chance

44220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4962

202

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

604

In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?

Mar 11, 10:28 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

231053

OptionProbability

After March 31 2026.

Before 01/01 2027

During April 2026.

Within 10 days.

100

21

1

0

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

18492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?

Apr 8, 2:01 AMDec 31, 1:59 AM

43%chance

584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Which major platform will be first to announce Meta-style teen safety measures by September 30, 2026?

Aug 26, 9:40 PMSep 30, 8:59 PM

371

OptionProbability

None of the above

YouTube

TikTok

Snapchat

49

31

12

9

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

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