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Prediction markets for Assurant

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.26%chance

22244746812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19617

4368

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

Will Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028?

Jul 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.1%chance

44220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4962

202

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

604

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

Jan 3, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.36%chance

16515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

18492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?

Apr 8, 2:01 AMDec 31, 1:59 AM

43%chance

584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

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