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Prediction markets for Assurant

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.05%chance

21694598751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19297

4479

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?

Jan 30, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.27%chance

302301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

954

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

604

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?

Mar 11, 10:28 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

16583

OptionProbability

After March 31 2026.

Before 01/01 2027

During April 2026.

Within 10 days.

80

79

45

0

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

Jan 3, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.4%chance

15465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

17462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

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