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Prediction markets for Assurant

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44%chance

20494293704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14023

7259

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.97%chance

166806

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3948

253

Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic primary polls at end of 2025?

May 6, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.66%chance

323146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?

Jan 30, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.27%chance

302301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

954

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.69%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

594

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.51%chance

17593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

857

Will Trump pardon the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot defendants?

Jun 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 6:44 PM

15.56%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will a gatekeeper be deployed in the real world by EoY 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]

May 6, 10:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66%chance

6126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

Will "Information vs Assurance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 27, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

93

Bounty for helping me regain access to my Facebook account on desktop/web.

Aug 18, 7:31 PMAug 19, 2:59 AM

00

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