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BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

US Gov Appointments

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

3

3 months ago

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.22%chance

21224504845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17437

5215

Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic primary polls at end of 2025?

May 6, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.1%chance

528270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1390

719

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?

Jan 30, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.27%chance

302301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

954

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.69%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

594

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

10965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.29%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

If Tetraspace makes an assurance contract website in 2024, how many users will it have at the end of 2024?

Dec 24, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5230

OptionProbability

6 to 10

11 to 20

21 to 50

201 to 500

501 to 1000

2

3 to 5

51 to 100

101 to 200

1001 to 2000

Other

1

12

11

11

9

9

7

7

7

7

7

7

5

Will Trump pardon the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot defendants?

Jun 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 6:44 PM

15.56%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

Will "Information vs Assurance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 27, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

93

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