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Top stories

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

US Gov Appointments

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Assured

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.22%chance

21424581558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18844

4643

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

Will a government agent kill another American citizen before February 28, 2026?

Jan 25, 12:45 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

50%chance

362518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?

Jan 30, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.27%chance

302301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

954

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

604

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will America be a failed state by 2050?

Jan 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

11533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

Jan 3, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.4%chance

15465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

13430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

If Tetraspace makes an assurance contract website in 2024, how many users will it have at the end of 2024?

Dec 24, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5230

OptionProbability

6 to 10

11 to 20

21 to 50

201 to 500

501 to 1000

2

3 to 5

51 to 100

101 to 200

1001 to 2000

Other

1

12

11

11

9

9

7

7

7

7

7

7

5

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

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