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Prediction markets for Aster

Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth?

Feb 5, 2:21 AMDec 23, 4:59 AM

1.06%chance

4721853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9646

104

Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?

Feb 10, 12:05 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.38%chance

19817216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2878

2581

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.97%chance

393890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

815

Will we redirect another asteroid by April 1, 2029?

Apr 2, 2:31 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

31.65%chance

201660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

331

Will asteroid mining ever be profitable before 2050?

Feb 11, 7:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.02%chance

211534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

387

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

56.84%chance

271358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1283

695

Will we mine an asteroid by 2034?

Jul 31, 6:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.25%chance

191230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

651

Will 1 kg of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.87%chance

16768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1354

895

Will humanity be mining asteroids by 2100?

Nov 11, 3:42 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

78.82%chance

19449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

903

Will there be a successful asteroid deflection by 2050?

Sep 5, 8:50 PMDec 31, 8:00 AM

31.92%chance

23417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

844

Will 1 ton of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2075?

Apr 5, 6:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.98%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

951

What genre will Ari Aster’s next announced feature film be?

Aug 3, 2:09 AMJan 2, 3:09 AM

170

OptionProbability

Other

Horror

Sci-fi

Eddington sequel (including spiritual or narrative continuation)

54

20

20

6

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