OptionProbability
(JAP) Red flag during Qualyfing session
[BAH] Safety car during the race
[BAH] Yuki Tsunoda scores points
[BAH] Bearman scores points
[SAU] Safety Car during the race
[SAU] Tsunoda makes it into Q3
[SAU] Leclerc will get top 4 in the race
[MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying
[MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP
[MIA] Williams double points in the main GP
[MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race
[MIA] Both McLaren on the podium
[IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race
[IMO] Max Verstappen Podium Finish
[IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session
[IMO] Piastri qualifies ahead of Norris
[IMO] Tsunoda scores point(s)
[MON] Red Flag during Qualifying
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] 4+ pit stops in the first 5 laps
[MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri
[MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race
[MON] Both Ferraris finish in top 5
[SPA] Both Ferraris reach Q3
[SPA] McLaren Pole Position
[SPA] McLaren 1-2 (race)
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[CAN] Red Flag during Qualifying
[CAN] Stroll starts the race
[CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)
[CAN] Mercedes Podium
[CAN] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[AUT] Bortoleto reaches Q3
[AUT] McLaren 1-2
[AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AUT] Bortoleto finishes top 10
[GBR] Yellow Flag first lap
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] McLaren 1-2 (race)
[GBR] Non-McLaren pole position
[GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.
[GBR] Gasly finishes in top 10
[BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[BEL] McLaren double podium (main race)
[BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race
[BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[BEL] Bortoleto reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[BEL] Leclerc podium (main race)
[BEL] Bortoleto in the top 10 (main race)
[BEL] Hamilton top 10 (main race)
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
[HUN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the race
[HUN] Antonelli finishes in the points
[HUN] Bortoleto finishes in the points
[HUN] Both Aston Martins score points
[HUN] Leclerc is in first position at the end of lap 1
[NLD] Physical Safety Car during the race
[NLD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[NLD] Verstappen on the podium
[NLD] Tsunoda finishes in top 10
[ITA] New track record Set in Qualifying
[ITA] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[ITA] Non-McLaren pole position
[ITA] Hamilton finishes in top 6
[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AZE] Red flag during qualifying
[AZE] Yellow flag First Lap main race
[AZE] Norris and or Piastri Fail to finish due to an accident
[AZE] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[AZE] Non-McLaren pole position
[AZE] Mercedes on the podium (at least 1 driver)
[SGP] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[SGP] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)
[COTA] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[COTA] Physical Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car during the main race
[COTA] Verstappen wins the sprint race
[COTA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (main race)
[COTA] Leclerc finishes on the podium (main race)
[COTA] Bearman finishes in top 10 (main race)
[COTA] Hulkenberg finishes on top 10 (main race)
[MEX] all 3 tyre compounds used in main race
[MEX] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)
[MEX] At least one Ferrari on the podium
[MEX] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[MEX] Max finishes 3rd
[BRA] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[BRA] yellow flag first lap (main race)
[BRA] The same driver wins the Sprint and the GP
[BRA] McLaren pole in the SPRINT qualifying
[BRA] Antonelli Sprint podium
[BRA] Verstappen finishes the main race in the top 6
[BRA] Antonelli podium in the main race
[BRA] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 in the main race
[LAS]Verstappen finishes ahead of both McLarens
[LAS] Yellow flag first lap
[LAS] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race
[LAS] Sainz finishes in top 5 (race)
[LAS] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10 (race)
[QAT] Verstappen scores more points than Norris during the whole weekend
[QAT] Alonso scores points in the sprint race
[QAT] Alonso in top 10 (main race)
[ABU] NON-McLaren pole position
[ABU] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3
[ABU] Physical Safety Car during the race
[ABU] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race
Leave it open for upcoming GP
[ABU] Yellow flag first lap
[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention podiums
[MIA] Safety car in the main race
[ABU] Three different teams on the podium
[ABU] Verstappen, Piastri or Norris is involved in a collision causing him to DNF (engine, power unit problems etc. do not count)
[ABU] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[BEL] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention wins the race
(JAP) Safety car during the race
(JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)
(JAP) Yuki Tsunoda scores points
[JAP] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda
[BAH] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda
[BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)
[SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)
[SAU] McLaren double podium
[SAU] Bearman scores points
[MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race
[MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying
[MIA] Antonelli on the Podium
[IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris
[IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points
[MON] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)
[SPA] Virtual Safety Car during the race
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[SPA] Tsunoda goes into Q3
[SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)
[SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying
[SPA] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)
[SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)
[SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap
[CAN] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[CAN] Both Williams reach Q3
[CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points
[AUT] 3 different teams on the podium
[AUT] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[AUT] Stroll reaches Q3
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)
[AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.
[GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)
[GBR] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)
[GBR] At least one Ferrari on the podium
[GBR] Bearman finishes in top 10
[GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium
[BEL] Two or more cars DNF (main race)
[BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)
[BEL] McLaren 1-2 in the Sprint race
[BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race
[BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race
[BEL] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)
[BEL] main race is cancelled/aborted
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[HUN] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] At least two drivers DNF
[NLD] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[NLD] Exactly 18 cars finish the race
Hamilton finishes in top 7
[NLD] Yellow flag first lap
[NLD] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[NLD] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[NLD] Antonelli reaches Q3
[NLD] Both Williams reach Q3
[NLD] Red flag during qualifying
[ITA] Physical Safety during the race
[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least one)
[ITA] Yellow flag first lap
[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres needed in Race
[ITA] Both Williams reach Q3
[ITA] Ferrari on the podium (at least one driver)
[AZE] New lap record in Qualifying
[AZE] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AZE] 3 or more DNF (race)
[AZE] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the race.
[SGP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SGP] Red flag during qualifying
[SGP] Yellow flag first lap
[SGP] 1 or more teams loses both cars in the race
[SGP] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[SGP] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[SGP] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[SGP] Antonelli on the podium
[SGP] Kick Sauber scores points
[COTA] McLaren pole position in the SPRINT qualifying
[COTA] Hulkenberg top 5 in the sprint race
[COTA] Tsunoda reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[COTA] McLaren pole position in the main race qualifying
[COTA] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3 in the main race qualifying
[COTA] Impeding penalty (at least 1) during main race qualifying
[COTA] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda (main race)
[COTA] Antonelli finishes in top 5 (main race)
[COTA] 6 or more drivers fail to finish the main race
[MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MEX] Red Flag during qualifying
[MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MEX] Max wins and Oscar finishes 3rd or lower
[MEX] Yuki is send slightly airborne by someone colliding with his right rear tire
[MEX] Yellow flag first lap main race
[MEX] George Russell podium
[MEX] Verstappen takes pole
[MEX] Piastri finishes ahead of Verstappen
[MEX] Red Flag during the Race
[BRA] main race podium is both McLarens and Max in any order
[BRA] a driver from neither McLaren, RBR, Ferrari or Mercedes gets a podium in the main race
[BRA] all three WDC contenders take a part replacement penalty
[BRA] Bortoleto finishes the main race in the points
[BRA] Max finishes the main race ahead of both McLarens
[BRA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[BRA] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)
[BRA] impeding penalty during qualifying (for the main race)
[BRA] McLaren 1-2 in the SPRINT Race
[BRA] Leclerc podium in the main race
[BRA] Alonso finishes in top 10 in the main race
[LAS] Red flag during qualifying
[LAS] Physical safety car during the race
[LAS] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[LAS] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris
[LAS] A Ferrari qualifies in top 4
[LAS] One or more double-DNF (main race)
[LAS] McLaren double podium
[QAT] Verstappen scores 17 points more than Norris over whole weekend
[QAT] Exactly two cars DNF the GP
[QAT] Lando Norris wins WDC
[QAT] Verstappen and Norris make contact in the sprint or main race
[QAT] yellow flag first lap
[QAT] driver disqualified after the main race
[QAT] The same driver wins the Sprint and the main race
[QAT] Tsunoda reaches Q3 of main race qualifying
[QAT] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[QAT] Red flag during main race to clear gravel (no stranded car or significant car parts)
[QAT] Both McLarens touch and at least one of them DNFs because of it
[QAT] Mercedes on the podium (main race)
[QAT] Both Racing Bulls in top 10 (main race)
[QAT] Both Ferraris outside of top 10 (main race)
[ABU] Red flag during qualifying
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
78
73
53
53
52
41
32
20
9
8
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Lando Norris (McLaren)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)
George Russel (Mercedes)
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)
Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
Jack Doohan (Alpine)
Alexander Albon (Williams)
Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)
Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)
Isack Hadjar (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)
Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)
Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)
Esteban Ocon (Haas)
Ollie Bearman (Haas)
73
26
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Lando Norris (McLaren)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
George Russell (Mercedes)
Sergio Perez (Red Bull)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
Other
84
14
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
90
87
86
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
80
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
67
66
63
62
62
60
60
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
40
40
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
36
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
Hamilton gets a podium finish
Max Verstappen wins the WDC
A team principle gets replaced during the season
Lewis Hamilton announces retirement
Lewis Hamilton gets a podium
Lewis Hamilton wins a feature race
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
The top three drivers in the WDC will be from three different teams
Neither Cadillac nor Audi finish WCC at the bottom
WCC is won with 5 or more races to go
WDC winner wins their first title
A driver at Red Bull Racing gets replaced during the season
A driver gets a race ban due to penalty points
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
WDC is won with 5 or more races to go
Mohammed Ben Sulayem steps down as head of FIA
Aston Martin wins WCC
63
60
53
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
41
41
41
39
37
37
31
13
OptionProbability
Mercedes
Aston Martin
He'll leave F1 without driving for another team
Audi/Sauber
Ferrari
McLaren
Racing Bulls
Alpine
Haas
Williams
Cadillac
Other
37
21
17
8
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Mercedes
McLaren
Red Bull Racing
Ferrari
Aston Martin
Alpine
Williams
Audi
Racing Bulls
Cadillac
Haas
Other
41
17
15
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Lamborghini
Other
Rolls Royce
Aston Martin
Bugatti
28
28
14
14
14
OptionProbability
Rolls Royce
Aston Martin
Bugatti
Other
25
25
25
25
