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Astra News

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?

Jan 5, 3:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3310403

OptionProbability

New Glenn

H3

Long March 5

Zhuque 2

LVM3

Falcon Heavy

Nuri

Tianlong 3

Proton M

Zhuque 3

Pallas 1

Starship

Chollima 1

Vikram 1

Ceres-2

RFA One

Kairos

Ariane 64

Qased

Kinetica-2

Long March 12A

Rocket Lab Neutron

Nebula-1

Orbex Prime

ABL RS1

Hyperbola-3

Astra Rocket 4

Stoke Space Nova

Isar Spectrum

Gilmour Space Eris

Long March 10

Skyrora XL

100

100

100

100

84

72

66

44

38

37

36

35

35

35

33

31

31

30

27

24

22

15

13

9

8

7

6

5

5

4

4

1

When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

146016

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-07-01

86

80

68

58

20

3

0

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 1:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

635154

OptionProbability

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Interstellar (2014)

Children of Men (2006)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

The Matrix (1999)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (2004)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Terminator (1984)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Back to the Future Part II (1989)

Elysium (2013)

Ad Astra (2019)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Gattaca (1997)

Wag the Dog (1997)

33

23

20

4

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Scott Alexander/ Astral Codex Ten Stock (permanent)

Jan 24, 10:02 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

153366

OptionProbability

NO

YES

369

188

Will the next version of Google's LLMs NOT have Flash / Pro / Ultra or other words after the number?

May 20, 8:01 PMMay 20, 7:59 PM

12.55%chance

42170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

379

Which Boston restaurant(s) will get at least 1 Michelin Star by the end of March 2026?

May 14, 8:05 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

8527

OptionProbability

Wa Shin

Giulia

Ostra

O Ya

Deuxave

Astra

Celeste

Nightshade Noodle Bar

Kaia

Mahaniyom

Brassica Kitchen + Cafe

97

58

50

36

34

34

34

28

28

28

24

Will Pascal Soriot (CEO of AstraZeneca) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.36%chance

7273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

126

Which movie is 2025 most likely to resemble?

Mar 24, 7:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11257

OptionProbability

Her (2013)

The Matrix (1999)

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (1984)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Ex Machina (2014)

Blade Runner (1982)

Elysium (2013)

The Lives of Others (2006)

A Boy and His Dog (1975)

The Road (2009)

Ad Astra (2019)

Children of Men (2006)

Gattaca (1997)

Wag the Dog (1997)

V for Vendetta (2005)

19

17

17

7

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Astra's Rocket 4 ever achieve orbit?

Sep 9, 2:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.46%chance

5223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

15

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