Astronomer News

What will be the next astronomical object a human lands on?

Aug 27, 3:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

211698

OptionProbability

Earth's Moon

an asteroid or comet

Mars

Other

Venus

a moon of a different planet

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

121409

OptionProbability

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

What will be the second next astronomical object a human lands on?

Aug 27, 4:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15812

OptionProbability

Mars

an asteroid or comet

Earth's Moon

a moon of a different planet

Other

Venus

What will be the second next astronomical object a human orbits around?

Aug 27, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12799

OptionProbability

Mars

Earth's Moon

an asteroid or comet

Venus

a moon of a different planet

Other

Will there be any astronomical evidence of AI wiping out another civilization, published on Earth before 2100?

Mar 8, 11:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

20660

OptionVotes

YES

1202

954

Will an astronomical event (e.g., asteroid impact) wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jun 24, 11:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.44%chance

13658

OptionVotes

YES

1530

939

What will be the next astronomical object a human orbits around?

Aug 27, 4:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7567

OptionProbability

Earth's Moon

Mars

Venus

a moon of a different planet

an asteroid or comet

Other

Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?

Feb 5, 5:02 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.09%chance

16448

OptionVotes

YES

1013

944

MIT below first in QS Physics & Astronomy rankings before 2028?

Apr 16, 12:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.67%chance

7304

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will any astronomical body in the solar system be terraformed before the first permanent settlement?

Feb 7, 10:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.4%chance

11208

OptionVotes

YES

309

174

Will any spacecraft visit at least 3 astronomical bodies other than the Earth or Sun before 2040?

Feb 7, 5:03 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

60.29%chance

694

OptionVotes

YES

169

167

Will any astronomical object with redshift >= 20 be observed before 2030?

May 15, 1:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.84%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

118

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What will be the next astronomical object a human lands on?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

What will be the second next astronomical object a human lands on?

What will be the second next astronomical object a human orbits around?

Will there be any astronomical evidence of AI wiping out another civilization, published on Earth before 2100?

Will an astronomical event (e.g., asteroid impact) wipe out humanity by 2100?

What will be the next astronomical object a human orbits around?

Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?

MIT below first in QS Physics & Astronomy rankings before 2028?

Will any astronomical body in the solar system be terraformed before the first permanent settlement?

Will any spacecraft visit at least 3 astronomical bodies other than the Earth or Sun before 2040?

Will any astronomical object with redshift >= 20 be observed before 2030?

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