Astrophysics News

Sean Duffy: NASA Plans Moon Base Under Trump Administration, Faces Astrophysics Turnover and Shifts From Earth Science

7 months ago

Is the Silurian hypothesis true?

Nov 11, 7:39 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

2.89%chance

6604

OptionVotes

YES

462

105

Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

Jan 2, 3:18 PMSep 30, 2:16 PM

7393

OptionProbability

Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing)

Astrophysics or Cosmology

Condensed Matter Physics

Optics or Photonics

Atomic or Molecular Physics

Geophysics, Climate or Atmospheric Physics

Biophysics

Fluid dynamics

Semiconductor Physics

Superconductivity

Particle Physics

Thermodynamics

Will the view that black holes filled with negative pressure explain the expansion of the Universe be the most supported hypothesis in 2030?

Feb 18, 7:29 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

5.09%chance

5323

OptionVotes

YES

473

Where and when does the Fine Structure Constant (α) vary?

Jan 20, 8:44 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM

9270

OptionProbability

It has or may continue to vary over time at times after the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang

It varied over time during the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang

At the current time it varies across space

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

Feb 5, 12:50 AMNov 10, 11:59 PM

19.9%chance

8244

OptionVotes

YES

201

Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?

Feb 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.44%chance

12212

OptionVotes

YES

218

171

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Jan 2, 6:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

6209

OptionProbability

Ejected Planetary Objects

Other

Gravitational Fragmentation

Binary Coalescence

Unidentified Physical Phenomenon

Dark Matter Interaction

Quantum Fluctuation

Alien Engineering

What explains Extended Red Emission?

Nov 6, 10:17 PMNov 7, 10:05 PM

2135

OptionProbability

Charged PAH dimers ([PAH2]+)

Photoluminescence by hydrogenated amorphous carbon (HAC)

Aromatic carbon structures with heteroatoms

Porous silicon and nanocrystalline silicon

Amorphous hydrogenated silicon carbide

Natural coal or coal-like materials

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.32%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

112

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Prediction markets for Astrophysics

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Prediction markets for Astrophysics

Is the Silurian hypothesis true?

Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

Will the view that black holes filled with negative pressure explain the expansion of the Universe be the most supported hypothesis in 2030?

Where and when does the Fine Structure Constant (α) vary?

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

What explains Extended Red Emission?

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

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