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Prediction markets for At World Properties

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

12329807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2372

673

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.17%chance

334634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

620

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

223816

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

55

54

53

49

44

43

38

36

31

15

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

65.4%chance

423576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

727

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

389

Markers for conscious AI #1: AI passes introspection on world-models test

Nov 2, 3:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11952

OptionProbability

<2027

<2030

<2026

>=2030

38

34

14

14

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Which Disney Properties that haven't been referenced yet in Kingdom Hearts will appear in Kingdom Hearts IV on release?

Dec 24, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9251

OptionProbability

Star Wars (anything from the universe: lightsaber, the force, a jedi/sith…etc.)

Spider-Man / Marvel

Wall-E

Coco

Atlantis

Princess and the Frog

Robin Hood

The Great Mouse Detective

The Country Bears

Indiana Jones

Treasure Planet

Turning Red

84

79

73

67

66

54

50

50

50

50

34

24

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Nov 5, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.51%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

101

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.53%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Games Workshop's "The Old World" discontinued by 2027?

Apr 9, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.58%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

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