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Prediction markets for At World Properties

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.56%chance

11127194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

1425

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

56

54

54

49

44

43

40

36

34

17

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

47%chance

343014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.09%chance

292954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

685

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Markers for conscious AI #1: AI passes introspection on world-models test

Nov 2, 3:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10902

OptionProbability

<2027

<2030

<2026

>=2030

37

34

15

14

If AI causes human extinction before 2100, how will it happen

Dec 29, 1:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24897

OptionProbability

Will cause extinction, foom

Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure

Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World

Other

Will cause extinction, Economic Competition

Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement

Will cause extinction, AI Race

Will cause extinction, Terminator

47

22

15

8

2

2

2

1

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Nov 5, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.51%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

383

242

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Games Workshop's "The Old World" discontinued by 2027?

Apr 9, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.58%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

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