Athletic News

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Under 65 yo

Under 60 yo

Straight

Has a STEM degree of any type

Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

Is an American citizen

If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

Under 55 yo

Speaks a foreign language

Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

Has been a CEO

Is married

Under 50 yo

Has children

Self described person of color

Has ethnic Asian heritage

Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

Software Engineering background

Was not an American citizen at birth

Went to a private high school

Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement

Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

Has attended Davos

Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

Non-native English speaker

CEO will take office after Q2 2027

Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

Is an only child

Born in the USA

Has ethnic European heritage

Diversity Points Score: 1

Has visited or lived in China

Has ever been divorced

Has PhD

Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

Under 45 yo

Has written and published a book either academic or non

Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

Has submitted and received 2+ patents

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

Diversity Points Score: 0

Under 40 yo

Has Jewish heritage

Neither parent attended college

Was a college-level athlete

Has any public mention of playing pickleball

Has at least 3 children

Is publicly Christian

Diversity Points Score: 2

Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

Blue eyes

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

Diversity Points Score: 3

Diversity Points Score: 4

If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

Tattoo

Has served in us govt

Has passed a bar exam

Female

Born in the northeast

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

Raised in a single parent family

Left-handed

Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

Grew up in poverty

Catholic

Physics Background

Green eyes

Is Hispanic

Both parents had PhDs

LGBT*+

Has military experience

Has worked or attended school in Israel

Is Muslim

Unnatural hair colour

Has ethnic African heritage

Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

Has a physical disability

Has been to space

Has an ADOS background

Pronouns are not standard

Has a speech impediment

Trans

Is an AI

Shohei Ohtani

Rory McIlroy

Joe Burrow

Erling Haaland

Aaron Judge

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Patrick Mahomes

Mookie Betts

Jylian Mbappe

Nikola Jokić

Viktor Hovland

Max Verstappen

Lamar Jackson

Giancarlo Stanton

Tyreek Hill

Joel Embiid

Cooper Kupp

Jon Rahm

Karim Benzema

Furkan Korkmaz

Sidney Crosby

LeBron James

Alexander Ovechkin

Stephen Curry

Mike Trout

Kyrie Irving

CJ McCollum

Lionel Messi

Kevin Durant

Miguel Cabrera

Fernando Alonso

Tiger Woods

Justin Verlander

Cristiano Ronaldo

Max Scherzer

Novak Djokovic

Season 18

Season 15

Season 16

Season 17

Season 19

Ruth Chepng'etich

Mo Katir

Fotyen Tesfay

Stian Angermund

Hellen Obiri

Adam

Ben

YES

YES

YES

Arizona State

UPenn

UCLA

University of Oregon

NO

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California