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In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.93%chance

27022466295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14996

1282

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49%chance

563470447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3111

2039

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.68%chance

293279439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1812

597

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

526216209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12091

5829

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.98%chance

25979322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9468

4190

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.66%chance

22150875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

1163

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.76%chance

3827021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32269

3099

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.98%chance

4119797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11757

8506

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.02%chance

136543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10444

9054

Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?

May 18, 6:49 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

59.71%chance

143301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12173

8215

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.45%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10090

9911

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