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Prediction markets for Atlys

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.32%chance

24071755870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9113

2643

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

20.8%chance

18021022330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19703

8751

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

128565987

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

34

32

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.42%chance

455372762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3718

1534

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.45%chance

495196105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4494

1223

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

16.42%chance

78190323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138465

21344

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

220179362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

940

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

1141

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3229069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

QQQ Index falls below $350 at any point in 2025

Dec 10, 5:52 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

16.97%chance

1116173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22023

4657

Will Khamzat Chimaev defeat Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319?

May 26, 6:17 PMAug 18, 6:16 PM

52.6%chance

189131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10534

9493

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

207035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14677

6813

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