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Prediction markets for Atos

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.09%chance

181589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1860

659

Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

231034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

814

Will an atomic phone be sold by 2031?

Jan 24, 7:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

15958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

965

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.85%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

904

Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?

Jul 15, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.03%chance

16676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

731

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.45%chance

15674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

951

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

915

Is the beryllium/helium ATOMKI anomaly due to a new particle?

Jun 10, 7:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

11.36%chance

19477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

908

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.82%chance

15314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

959

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.37%chance

13260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

922

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

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