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Prediction markets for ATS

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.44%chance

27212587387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20346

822

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

91%chance

323325344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3440

246

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

530230132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12091

5829

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

35.27%chance

213142064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

750

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11390

5011

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.8%chance

22150925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1100

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.96%chance

4623413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12005

8330

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

4112058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.09%chance

179858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13202

6235

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.75%chance

75706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15368

6507

Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?

May 18, 6:49 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

59.99%chance

143350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12246

8166

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