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Prediction markets for Augmental Technologies

When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?

Jan 15, 6:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

212682

OptionProbability

Other

2042

2043

2044

2045

2041

2040

2027

2039

2037

2034

2035

2036

2038

2024

2025

2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

30

7

7

7

7

6

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

251885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

722

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.58%chance

241311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1763

830

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

987

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Which sector will see the highest % of jobs displaced by AI in the US by end of Dec 31, 2026?

May 1, 1:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9213

OptionProbability

Customer Service / Call Centers

Other / None >15%

Software Development / Coding

Transportation / Trucking

Legal / Paralegal Work

Finance / Accounting

59

20

8

4

4

4

New EmbeddingGemma (or equivalent) based on Gemma 4 in 2026?

Apr 3, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.48%chance

551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

3

Will smartphones become extinct before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:23 PMDec 31, 7:30 AM

33%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

26

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