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Prediction markets for Augmental Technologies

When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?

Jan 15, 6:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

212682

OptionProbability

Other

2042

2043

2044

2045

2041

2040

2027

2039

2037

2034

2035

2036

2038

2024

2025

2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

30

7

7

7

7

6

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

231261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

838

Will the civilian death rate from Israeli airstrikes be 60% or higher at the conclusion of the current Palestine war?

Dec 10, 12:20 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

91%chance

12525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

942

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

987

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

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