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Prediction markets for August

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

18.03%chance

205817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

469

Will a Wind Waker re-release for the Switch 2 exist before August 2026?

Aug 1, 7:09 AMAug 1, 4:59 AM

15.39%chance

43798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2979

899

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

49%chance

123516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will I have a meaningful interaction over BitChat before August 1st 2026?

Aug 4, 6:22 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

45.27%chance

42105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Aug 9, 11:38 PMAug 1, 11:37 PM

72.31%chance

141365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1616

619

Will I become pregnant before August 14th, 2027?

Aug 15, 1:17 AMAug 15, 3:59 AM

70.18%chance

181218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

688

US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026?

Sep 19, 6:49 AMAug 30, 11:59 PM

19.45%chance

81191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2035

491

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

46.42%chance

111122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

If elected, will Zohran Mamdani maintain a net positive approval rating by August 2028?

Aug 24, 6:33 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

45.02%chance

11956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026?

Aug 4, 4:16 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

54.93%chance

26626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

931

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

7294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

788

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

828

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