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Prediction markets for August

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will a Wind Waker re-release for the Switch 2 exist before August 2026?

Aug 1, 7:09 AMAug 1, 4:59 AM

5.95%chance

66387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5241

375

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

49%chance

123516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on August 29, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:09 PMAug 29, 6:08 PM

62.83%chance

22800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on August 29, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:08 PMAug 29, 6:08 PM

60.98%chance

22750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

800

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Aug 9, 11:38 PMAug 1, 11:37 PM

41.46%chance

192131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

842

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

37.73%chance

111223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

44.17%chance

111172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

889

If elected, will Zohran Mamdani maintain a net positive approval rating by August 2028?

Aug 24, 6:33 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

45.02%chance

11956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

Will California be in a drought at end of August 2026?

Jan 1, 8:54 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

38.14%chance

9718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

785

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

7294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

788

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

101

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