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Top stories

Washington Think Tank Urges AUKUS Overhaul of Pillar II to Boost Autonomy, Strike, Air Defence as Marles Visits US and Plans Japan Trip

US Foreign Policy

Washington Think Tank Urges AUKUS Overhaul of Pillar II to Boost Autonomy, Strike, Air Defence as Marles Visits US and Plans Japan Trip

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Australian

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

57.11%chance

122456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

868

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?

May 21, 6:31 AMJun 30, 6:29 AM

56.51%chance

6722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

933

Legal Australian prediction market before 2028?

Sep 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

9559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Will Scott Morrison (Former Australian PM) be charged with a crime by 2030

Aug 14, 9:36 AMAug 14, 1:59 PM

16.26%chance

9357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

68

Will Level 5 (fully autonomous) cars be commercially available on any Australian roads by 2028?

Dec 20, 8:51 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

23.07%chance

5286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

126

2027 Australian Open - Women’s singles winner?

Feb 4, 10:26 PMFeb 3, 11:59 PM

4220

OptionProbability

Aryna Sabalenka

Other

🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek

🇺🇸 Coco Gauff

🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina

🇺🇸 Amanda Anisimova

26

26

14

12

12

9

When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM

3175

OptionProbability

No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves

Before 1 July 2026

July to December 2026

During 2027

2028 or later

27

18

18

18

18

Will Anthropic buy >1GW of capacity from Australian data centres by EOY 2027?

Jul 27, 12:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.52%chance

7166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

932

Will Labor and the Greens hold a majority of seats in the Australian Senate after the next election?

May 25, 2:30 PMJun 30, 1:49 PM

59.28%chance

8100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

983

Will Pauline Hanson run for the house (not senate) in the 2028 Australian election?

May 25, 1:18 PMJul 1, 12:59 AM

46.62%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

935

Which MPs will be reëlected at the next Australian federal election?

May 21, 5:57 AMJun 30, 5:52 AM

330

OptionProbability

Chris Bowen

Tim Wilson

Monique Ryan

Peter Khalil

66

59

59

50

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