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Top stories

Washington Think Tank Urges AUKUS Overhaul of Pillar II to Boost Autonomy, Strike, Air Defence as Marles Visits US and Plans Japan Trip

US Foreign Policy

Washington Think Tank Urges AUKUS Overhaul of Pillar II to Boost Autonomy, Strike, Air Defence as Marles Visits US and Plans Japan Trip

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Australian

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

51.45%chance

122561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

973

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?

May 21, 6:31 AMJun 30, 6:29 AM

51.41%chance

6833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

969

Australian Government Announces Fuel Rationing

Apr 3, 2:41 AMDec 31, 1:38 AM

15577

OptionProbability

NO Aus Fuel Rationing in 2026

In May 2026

In April 2026

In June 2026

In July 2026

In August to December 2026

94

2

1

1

1

1

Legal Australian prediction market before 2028?

Sep 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

9559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labour Party?

Nov 3, 8:50 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7396

OptionProbability

Jim Chalmers

Tony Burke

Other

Tanya Plibersek

Bill Shorten

Richard Marles

Penny Wong

Jason Clare

Chris Bowen

Linda Burney

Mark Butler

Katy Gallagher

Pat Conroy

Mark Dreyfus

Catherine King

Ed Husic

43

11

9

8

6

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Labor and the Greens hold a majority of seats in the Australian Senate after the next election?

May 25, 2:30 PMJun 30, 1:49 PM

50.86%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

836

When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM

3175

OptionProbability

No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves

Before 1 July 2026

July to December 2026

During 2027

2028 or later

27

18

18

18

18

Will the Australian outback be ‘greened’ / terraformed / geo-engineered before 2100?

Sep 11, 12:17 AMJan 10, 12:59 PM

86.74%chance

4162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

31

Will Pauline Hanson run for the house (not senate) in the 2028 Australian election?

May 25, 1:18 PMJul 1, 12:59 AM

49.73%chance

4140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will a Liberal MP or Senator join Community Strong Australia by the next Australian federal election?

Jun 25, 1:37 AMMay 19, 1:59 PM

25.71%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Which MPs will be reëlected at the next Australian federal election?

May 21, 5:57 AMJun 30, 5:52 AM

330

OptionProbability

Chris Bowen

Tim Wilson

Monique Ryan

Peter Khalil

66

59

59

50

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