Authentic News

Authentic Brands Takes Guess Private in US$1.4 Billion Deal

1 year ago

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

1681

1326

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

YES

3422

3106

Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?

Dec 24, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:41 AM

10.25%chance

189192

OptionVotes

YES

2959

338

Will blockchain gaming or blockchain features provide meaningful gameplay innovation to players in the next 4 years?

Dec 25, 9:19 PMJan 31, 2:59 AM

9.13%chance

453162

OptionVotes

YES

1535

899

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.28%chance

232201

OptionVotes

YES

2673

374

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.86%chance

371969

OptionVotes

YES

1085

902

When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?

Apr 24, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

101360

OptionProbability

2027 or later

2026

Other

2025

2024

Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?

Oct 21, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17753

OptionProbability

Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)

Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section

Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("

Friend who took a long time in the bathroom

Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers

Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth

Sketchy human ATM

Depression after a team I never heard of loses

Before Sunrise POV in record shop

Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is

Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company

Glass of Thrones letdown

Remembering that PBR was a thing

Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall

A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)

Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty

Candy addiction hotline

Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow

Friend who thinks they're safety officer

Brainstorming how to become viral

Slytherin doing the math

Cheap Airbnb tour

American Express review

Future Me

How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)

NFC Translation

Satire of sales ads

Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.

Every time I try to order a beer

Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot

Thinking I'm admiring the view from the Tokyo Skytower only to reveal that I don't realize I'm actually at the base of it.

100

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

YES

1027

859

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

YES

1363

876

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

YES

1100

941

Will majority consensus in AI ethics shift toward explicitly prioritizing authentic subjective fulfillment by 2030s end?

Mar 19, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.27%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

127

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Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?

Will blockchain gaming or blockchain features provide meaningful gameplay innovation to players in the next 4 years?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?

Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Will majority consensus in AI ethics shift toward explicitly prioritizing authentic subjective fulfillment by 2030s end?

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