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Prediction markets for Authoritas

Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:02 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

94.81%chance

263632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4274

234

Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:07 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

38.59%chance

151848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

793

Will China become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:03 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

74.49%chance

91507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1709

585

2028 US election: peaceful transfer of power to a non-authoritarian leader?

Jul 13, 11:18 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

75%chance

161370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

Will France become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:08 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.87%chance

81325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will Israel become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:11 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

62.38%chance

111015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

777

Will Germany become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:05 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

54.29%chance

151010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

917

Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:04 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

78.85%chance

12977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1931

518

Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:17 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

75.48%chance

11867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will Argentina become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:14 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

46.6%chance

5575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

934

Will USA have an authoritarian president who is openly an AI alignment or degrowth proponent by 2044?

Sep 14, 12:22 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

26.14%chance

16554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

978

Which regions will become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:00 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

10251

OptionProbability

North America

Asia and Australasia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Western Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

95

88

66

66

66

53

39

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