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Prediction markets for Authority

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

5%chance

84202880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47793

2901

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

69%chance

159139989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1698

1437

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?

Jul 28, 10:19 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

3.29%chance

10332752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10281

873

Treasury shuts off Congressionally authorized payments to Department of Education by December 31, 2025

Feb 4, 4:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.74%chance

258597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10639

9487

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.18%chance

466435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

945

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

61.64%chance

176330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12676

7889

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 5, 5:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

32.64%chance

293276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

696

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.64%chance

251239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

580

Will Anthropic lose the Authors’ Copyright Class Action Lawsuit by end of 2026?

Jul 26, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

131121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2168

802

Will California authorize more housing units in 2026 than 2025?

Jul 3, 2:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

70.96%chance

13732

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1563

640

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.16%chance

18716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

7540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

735

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