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Prediction markets for Authority

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.64%chance

85208321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49833

2798

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?

Jul 28, 10:19 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

2.82%chance

10334002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11531

834

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76.93%chance

2019690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18263

5476

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.06%chance

476451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

961

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

75.48%chance

212704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1754

570

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.83%chance

261906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

212

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.53%chance

81340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1909

524

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Sep 10, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

22817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

979

Will California authorize more housing units in 2027 than 2026?

Oct 22, 11:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

67.55%chance

8456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

693

Will California authorize at least 150,000 housing units in one year by 2028?

Oct 23, 10:27 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

39.73%chance

4374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2772

2450

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