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Prediction markets for Authority

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.47%chance

87211637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

50919

2746

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

89.45%chance

159141024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4067

903

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?

Jul 28, 10:19 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

2.86%chance

10434210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11424

837

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

50.13%chance

2224705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10025

9975

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.56%chance

8910858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

863

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42%chance

516643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

888

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.83%chance

261906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

212

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.77%chance

91390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

574

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Sep 10, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

22817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

979

Will California authorize more housing units in 2027 than 2026?

Oct 22, 11:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

67.55%chance

8456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

693

Will California authorize at least 150,000 housing units in one year by 2028?

Oct 23, 10:27 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

39.73%chance

4374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2772

2450

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