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Prediction markets for Authority

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.84%chance

87213855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48701

2854

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

88.09%chance

159141369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3721

947

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?

Jul 28, 10:19 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

2.86%chance

10434210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11424

837

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

46.51%chance

2325456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10724

9325

Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Oct 16, 6:00 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM

15.6%chance

4824929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

432

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51.49%chance

9812355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

842

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.71%chance

516673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

918

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.83%chance

261906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

212

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Sep 10, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.14%chance

22917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

827

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.29%chance

3672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3272

2101

Will California authorize at least 150,000 housing units in one year by 2028?

Oct 23, 10:27 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

31.3%chance

5624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

675

Will California authorize more housing units in 2027 than 2026?

Oct 22, 11:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

69.31%chance

10516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1503

665

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