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Prediction markets for Automation

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?

Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.77%chance

10916674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

729

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.06%chance

483141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

619

Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?

Jun 12, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.92%chance

183021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1568

638

Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2027?

Oct 7, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.96%chance

62820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1832

546

Will Automation by AI Cut Computer Programmer Jobs at least 25% by 2032?

Jan 12, 2:57 AMJan 19, 7:59 AM

79.91%chance

211471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2033

331

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

Sep 29, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

51%chance

291242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

668

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

Mar 31, 3:47 AMMar 31, 3:40 AM

8905

OptionProbability

AI research completely automated by April 2028

AI researchers reduced to "generation of novel research ideas" by end of 2026

42

22

Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?

Nov 13, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.01%chance

14398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

949

Will access to social assistance be automated in France before 2027 ?

Jun 20, 9:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.19%chance

11258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

953

Will "Sequent: scale and automation for higher conf..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 4:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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