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Prediction markets for Automation

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?

Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

10716329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1455

760

Will AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?

Jan 15, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.41%chance

195150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3821

262

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.62%chance

302190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

771

Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?

Jun 12, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

101587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Will Automation by AI Cut Computer Programmer Jobs at least 25% by 2032?

Jan 12, 2:57 AMJan 19, 7:59 AM

79.91%chance

211471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2033

331

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

Sep 29, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.56%chance

26876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

853

Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2027?

Oct 7, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

2600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?

Nov 13, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.01%chance

14398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

949

Will access to social assistance be automated in France before 2027 ?

Jun 20, 9:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.19%chance

11258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

953

Will "We should try to automate AI safety work asap" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 10:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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