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Prediction markets for Automation

If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?

May 13, 11:34 PMMay 14, 6:59 AM

19210015

OptionProbability

Over 10,000

Below 500

500-999

1,000-1,999

2,000-2,999

3,000-3,999

4,000-4,999

5,000-5,999

6,000-7,999

8,000-10,000

100

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?

Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.81%chance

10816424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

855

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?

Jun 12, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.51%chance

101637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1475

678

Will Automation by AI Cut Computer Programmer Jobs at least 25% by 2032?

Jan 12, 2:57 AMJan 19, 7:59 AM

79.91%chance

211471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2033

331

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

Sep 29, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

51%chance

291242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

668

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

Mar 31, 3:47 AMMar 31, 3:40 AM

6875

OptionProbability

AI research completely automated by April 2028

AI researchers reduced to "generation of novel research ideas" by end of 2026

41

21

Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2027?

Oct 7, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

2600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?

Nov 13, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.01%chance

14398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

949

Will "Sequent: scale and automation for higher conf..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 4:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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