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Prediction markets for Automotive

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

Will gas hit ___ by end of March?

Mar 8, 10:16 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

253197

OptionProbability

Above $3.50

Above $3.75

Above $4.00

Above $4.25

Above $4.50

Above $4.75

Above $5

100

100

90

21

10

7

6

Will Quantumscape & PowerCo confirm initial sample production of QS-enabled Unified Cell in 2026?

Dec 21, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.38%chance

10724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

12724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

896

A Chinese car is one of the top 5 best selling passenger car models in Canada in 2026

Jan 16, 9:52 PMJan 16, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

18665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

1038

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.21%chance

13500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

955

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.01%chance

12475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

871

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

14386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

923

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2027?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.67%chance

11383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

145

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2026?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.62%chance

9324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

132

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Can hydrogen have a significant market share as an alternative fuel in automotive industry in next decade?

Oct 11, 4:30 PM

80

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