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Prediction markets for Automotive

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

12724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

896

A Chinese car is one of the top 5 best selling passenger car models in Canada in 2026

Jan 16, 9:52 PMJan 16, 11:59 PM

12.62%chance

17645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

1018

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.21%chance

13500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

955

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.01%chance

12475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

871

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

14386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

923

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2027?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.67%chance

11383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

145

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2026?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.62%chance

9324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

132

When the first windowless/partially windowless, autonomous car without steering wheel and with reversed seats launches?

Jan 6, 7:38 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

6166

OptionProbability

2040-2045

Other

2050-2060

2045-2050

2030-2035

2025-2030

50

23

10

8

7

2

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Price of the Cheapest Humanoid by Tesla in nominal dollars EOY 2030

Apr 4, 5:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

196000-200000

20000-24000

24000-28000

28000-32000

32000-36000

36000-40000

40000-44000

44000-48000

48000-52000

52000-56000

56000-60000

60000-64000

64000-68000

68000-72000

72000-76000

76000-80000

80000-84000

4000-8000

8000-12000

12000-16000

16000-20000

84000-88000

88000-92000

92000-96000

96000-100000

0-4000

100000-104000

104000-108000

108000-112000

112000-116000

116000-120000

120000-124000

124000-128000

128000-132000

132000-136000

136000-140000

140000-144000

144000-148000

148000-152000

152000-156000

156000-160000

160000-164000

164000-168000

168000-172000

172000-176000

176000-180000

180000-184000

184000-188000

188000-192000

192000-196000

7

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Can hydrogen have a significant market share as an alternative fuel in automotive industry in next decade?

Oct 11, 4:30 PM

80

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