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Prediction markets for Automotive

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

10%chance

143331308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3668

2233

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

11440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

982

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.33%chance

12440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

982

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.2%chance

12375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.67%chance

13373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

946

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2025?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.64%chance

10333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

954

The Volkswagen ID. Buzz will surpass 5,000 US sales in Q3 of 2025

May 14, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

14.98%chance

11324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2026?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.38%chance

7304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

134

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2027?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.94%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

270

159

EPA's chrysotile asbestos ban overturned by the end of 2025

Feb 7, 4:27 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

63.05%chance

8117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Can hydrogen have a significant market share as an alternative fuel in automotive industry in next decade?

Oct 11, 4:30 PM

80

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