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Prediction markets for Automotive

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.4%chance

147482055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7728

1949

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

12724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

896

A Chinese car is one of the top 5 best selling passenger car models in Canada in 2026

Jan 16, 9:52 PMJan 16, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

19685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

1035

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.21%chance

13500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

955

Chinese EVs manufactured in Canada?

Apr 2, 3:04 AMApr 9, 3:01 AM

48.76%chance

12481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

808

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.01%chance

12475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

871

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

15411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

948

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2027?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.38%chance

12393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

384

144

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2026?

Mar 4, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.62%chance

9324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

132

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Can hydrogen have a significant market share as an alternative fuel in automotive industry in next decade?

Oct 11, 4:30 PM

80

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